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Electric Vehicles Reduce GHG Emissions, If You Live in the Right Place
In the last post, I looked at why an electric vehicle might be expected to have lower GHG emissions than a gasoline vehicle. In this post, I will look at what some studies have actually found. My original post on this subject was in 2015, and it can be found here.
Figure 1. Source: European Environment Agency, 2018.
A report published by the European Environment Agency looked at electric vehicles in Europe. This report concluded that the answer depended on the energy mix in the grid. As shown in Figure 1, an electric vehicle (BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle, specifically a Nissan Leaf) drawing electricity generated by burning coal caused the most GHG emissions of all. But Europe has a significant amount of clean energy in its grid. If that same Nissan Leaf consumed electricity that matched the average European mix, then it would have emissions about 40% less. Compared to a standard internal combustion vehicle burning gasoline, the electric vehicle would have 26-30% fewer lifetime emissions.
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Figure 2. Source: Nealer, Reichmuth, and Anair, 2015.
The Union of Concerned Scientists published an analysis in 2015, almost as long ago as my original post on the subject. They focused on a “well-to-wheels” analysis. This looks at the GHGs emitted by the fuel consumed to operate the vehicle, including the GHGs emitted to obtain and produce the fuel. But it does not look at GHGs emitted to manufacture or dispose of the vehicle itself.
The study used an unusual metric for its comparison: the number of miles per gallon (MPG) that a gasoline vehicle would have to achieve in order to have emissions as low as those of an electric vehicle. Using this rather unintuitive metric, the higher the MPG a gasoline vehicle would have to achieve, the more of an advantage the electric vehicle had. Like the previous report, this study also found that the answer depended on the energy mix in the grid (see Figure 2). Where there is a lot of clean electricity in the grid, a gasoline vehicle would have to achieve up to 135 MPG to reduce its emissions to those of an electric vehicle. However, where there is mostly coal-generated electricity on the grid, a gasoline vehicle would only have to achieve 35 MPG. In 2016, the average fuel efficiency of a passenger car (SUVs and pickup trucks not included) was 37.7 MPG. (Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics.)
Figure 3. Sourse: Nealer, Reichmuth, and Anair, 2015.
As Figure 3 shows, the study found that, assuming the average energy mix on the U.S. grid in 2015, battery electric vehicles would emit 51-53% less GHG to build and operate.
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Figure 4: Lifetime GHG Emissions of Two Types of Car. Source: Kukrega, 2018.
A study published by the City of Vancouver compared the lifetime emissions per kilometer driven of a Ford Focus (gasoline vehicle) and a Mitsubishi i-MiEV (battery electric vehicle). The findings were presented as grams of GHG emitted per kilometer driven. As Figure 4 shows, The study found that the Ford emitted almost 400 grams of CO2e per kilometer, while the i-MiEV emitted slightly more than 200 – a 48% reduction. Now, the study was for British Columbia, and BC has a lot of clean energy in its grid.
These sources all agree: whether an electric vehicle reduces GHG emissions depends on the mix of energy that is in the electrical grid. This is the same conclusion I found when I looked at this question 4 years ago – the situation has not changed.
Figure 5. Source: Energy Information Administration.
Unfortunately, neither has the situation here in Missouri. As Figure 5 shows, we still have a grid that generates the vast majority of its electricity by burning coal. If GHG emissions are what you care about, then driving an electric vehicle here makes no sense. In other parts of the country, however, it might make a great deal of sense.
Sources
Bureau of Transportation Statistics. 2016. Average Fuel Efficiency of U.S. Light Duty Vehicles. Downloaded 9/3/2019 from https://www.bts.gov/content/average-fuel-efficiency-us-light-duty-vehicles.
Department of Energy. 2019a. Emissions from Hybrid and Plug-In Electric Vehicles. Downloaded 9/2/2019 from https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric_emissions.html.
Department of Energy. 2019b. “Find and Compare Cars.” www.fueleconomy.gov. Viewed online 9/2/2019 at https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/findacar.shtm.
U.S. Energy Information Administration. 2019. Missouri State Energy Profile. Downloaded 90302019 from https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=MO#tabs-4.
European Environment Agency. 2018. Electric Vehicles from Life Cycle and Circular Economy Perspectives. Downloaded 9/2/2019 from https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/electric-vehicles-from-life-cycle/electric-vehicles-from-life-cycle/viewfile#pdfjs.action=download.
Kukreja, Balpreet. 2018. Life Cycle Analysis of Electric Vehicles. City of Vancouver. Downloaded 9/3/2019 from https://sustain.ubc.ca/sites/sustain.ubc.ca/files/GCS/2018_GCS/Reports/2018-63%20Lifecycle%20Analysis%20of%20Electric%20Vehicles_Kukreja.pdf.
Nealer, Rachael, David Reichmuth, and Don Anair. 2015 Cleaner Cars from Cradle to Grave. Union of Concerned Scientists. Downloaded 9/2/2012 from https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/11/Cleaner-Cars-from-Cradle-to-Grave-full-report.pdf.
Will Electric Cars Save The World, or Is It All Marketing Hype?
There is a lot of hype about electric vehicles. On the Internet you can find articles heralding electric vehicles as world saviors, due to reduced greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). You can also find articles purporting to debunk that idea. Then you find articles debunking the debunkers, and so forth.
In 2014, I reported on a study comparing the lifetime carbon emissions of electric vehicles vs. gasoline powered automobiles. The study concluded that whether electric vehicles produced fewer greenhouse gas emissions depended on where you lived. If you drew your energy from an electricity grid with low carbon sources of electricity (translation: not generated by burning coal), your electric vehicle would produce fewer GHG emissions than would a gasoline powered vehicle. An electric vehicle consuming electricity that came from 100% renewable sources was the lowest emitting type of all vehicles. However, if you drew your energy from a grid with high carbon sources of electricity, then an electric vehicle was perhaps the worst kind of vehicle you could own, at least from the perspective of GHG emissions. (See here for my previous post.)
It has been 4 years. Perhaps it is time to look again. In this post, I’ll look conceptually at why an electric vehicle might be expected to have lower GHG emissions than a gasoline vehicle. In the next post, I look at some studies I was able to find, and report what they had to say.
A lifetime analysis considers all of the GHGs emitted by a vehicle during its entire lifetime. Typically they divide the life of a vehicle into 3 stages. First is the manufacturing: raw materials have to be mined, transported, processed, and refined. Then they have to be manufactured into parts. Then the parts have to be transported to the assembly plant, where the vehicle is put together. All of these stages consume energy, which means they emit GHGs.
Many of the components of gasoline and electric vehicles are similar in the amount of GHG emitted during manufacture. However, one component is not: gasoline cars store their energy in gas tanks, which are not especially energy intensive to build. Electric cars, however, store their energy in lithium-ion batteries. These batteries are energy intensive to build in all phases of manufacture: obtaining the raw materials, refining it, and constructing the batteries. Thus, in terms of manufacturing, the studies I have looked at agree that it is more carbon intensive to manufacture an electric vehicle than a gasoline vehicle. However, the largest area of uncertainty in the analysis of electric vehicles involves just how much GHG is emitted by manufacturing a lithium-ion battery. Estimates disagree.
Second, the vehicle is driven by its owner or operator. In this stage, the vehicle consumes fuel. Most studies agree that the fuel consumed by a vehicle is the largest source of GHG emissions during the life of the vehicle. Burning gasoline to power an internal combustion engine is relatively energy inefficient – only a fraction of the energy is used to move the vehicle down the road, the rest gets wasted. Further, it is not particularly clean. The result is that vehicles release a lot of GHGs (and also other forms of pollution). And finally, every time the vehicle stops, all of that wonderful energy moving the car down the road is dissipated into heat by the friction of the brakes. It is just thrown away.
Electric motors are much more energy efficient than are gasoline motors. Further, when an electric vehicle stops, it can recapture some of the energy of the moving car through regenerative braking. The recovered energy gets put back into the battery, and it is used to power the car the next time it starts moving. This is the advantage hybrid cars have, and it is why they get better gas mileage than do conventional cars. A Toyota Corolla (a compact gasoline burning car) will go 36 miles on the energy in a gallon of gas. On the other hand, a Nissan Leaf, an all-electric car, will go 112 miles on an equivalent amount of energy.
Further, an electric vehicle draws its energy from the electrical grid, where there is a much greater opportunity for the energy to be clean. To oversimplify the point, renewable energy (solar, wind, and hydro) are the lowest GHG forms of energy we have. Natural gas is next, then comes oil, and worst is coal. (I’ve left nuclear out; it is low GHG-producing, but it is objectionable for other reasons.) Electrical generators can be inefficient, just like gasoline engines are. However, there is a much greater chance that some of the electricity on the grid will come from clean sources. If it comes from coal, then the electricity on which the car runs will be particularly high in GHG emissions, although they will be emitted at the power plant, not the tailpipe of the vehicle. If it has a significant mix of solar, wind, hydro, or natural gas, then it will be lower in GHG emissions.
The third step involves disposing of and/or recycling vehicle components. The studies I have read suggest that the GHGs emitted from disposing of and recycling gasoline and electric vehicles are roughly equivalent, except for that pesky lithium-ion battery. There is some hope that in the future it can be effectively recycled or reused (it will still be suitable for many uses, just not powering a car). However, this is uncertain. Thus, as in manufacturing, the GHG emissions associated with disposing of and/or recycling an electric vehicle were estimated to be higher than those for a gasoline engine.
So, the question becomes: are the GHG savings from operating an electric vehicle more than the higher emissions during manufacture and disposal? And if so, by how much?
In the next post, I’ll look at some studies that try to answer that question.
Sources
Bureau of Transportation Statistics. 2016. Average Fuel Efficiency of U.S. Light Duty Vehicles. Downloaded 9/3/2019 from https://www.bts.gov/content/average-fuel-efficiency-us-light-duty-vehicles.
Department of Energy. 2019a. Emissions from Hybrid and Plug-In Electric Vehicles. Downloaded 9/2/2019 from https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric_emissions.html.
Department of Energy. 2019b. “Find and Compare Cars.” www.fueleconomy.gov. Viewed online 9/2/2019 at https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/findacar.shtm.
U.S. Energy Information Administration. 2019. Missouri State Energy Profile. Downloaded 90302019 from https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=MO#tabs-4.
European Environment Agency. 2018. Electric Vehicles from Life Cycle and Circular Economy Perspectives. Downloaded 9/2/2019 from https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/electric-vehicles-from-life-cycle/electric-vehicles-from-life-cycle/viewfile#pdfjs.action=download.
Kukreja, Balpreet. 2018. Life Cycle Analysis of Electric Vehicles. City of Vancouver. Downloaded 9/3/2019 from https://sustain.ubc.ca/sites/sustain.ubc.ca/files/GCS/2018_GCS/Reports/2018-63%20Lifecycle%20Analysis%20of%20Electric%20Vehicles_Kukreja.pdf.
Nealer, Rachael, David Reichmuth, and Don Anair. 2015 Cleaner Cars from Cradle to Grave. Union of Concerned Scientists. Downloaded 9/2/2012 from https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/11/Cleaner-Cars-from-Cradle-to-Grave-full-report.pdf.
Energy-Related Emissions Grew in 2017
Figure 1. Source: International Energy Agency, 2018.
Global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions grew by 1.4% in 2017, reaching a historic high of 32.5 billion metric tons, according to a recent report by the International Energy Agency. The increase occurred because of a 2.1% increase in the global amount of energy consumed. Figure 1 shows the trend on energy-related carbon dioxide emissions.
(Click on figure for larger view.)
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Figure 2. Source: International Energy Agency, 2018.
More than 40% of the increase in energy consumption was driven by China and India. (See Figure 2) The result was an almost 150 million metric ton increase in China’s carbon dioxide emissions from energy. India’s emissions are not broken out, but carbon dioxide emissions from the rest of developing Asia (ex-China) were approximately 125 million metric tons higher than in 2016 (amounts are not precise because they are read from a graph).
Some countries had lower carbon dioxide emissions. The biggest decline came from the USA, where emissions declined 25 million metric tons, or 0.5%. In Mexico, emissions dropped 4%, and in the United Kingdom they dropped 3.8%. Way to go Mexico and United Kingdom! Because those countries consume far less energy than does the USA, the raw number of metric tons reduced was less than in the USA, despite the percentage being higher.
Last December I published a post reporting that worldwide carbon dioxide emissions from energy had held constant for the three years ending in 2016. What happened?
Figure 3. Source: International Energy Agency, 2018.
Figure 3 shows the drivers of the change in carbon dioxide emissions. Energy intensity (in yellow) has decreased every year since 2011, meaning that it required less energy to produce a unit of economic output. The rate at which energy intensity improved seemed to grow until 2015, but the rate of improvement seems to have slowed since then. Carbon dioxide intensity also seems to have improved in many of the years (meaning that less carbon dioxide is released per unit of energy produced, most likely from cleaner fuel). On the other hand, economic growth has occurred in every year. It accelerated in 2017, and its effect overwhelmed the effects of the other two drivers.
Figure 4. Source: International Energy Agency, 2018.
Figure 4 shows the annual growth in energy consumption by fuel. The chart shows that from 2006-2015, there was an average increase in consumption of all types of energy except nuclear. In 2016, however, there was a significant reduction in demand for energy from burning coal. Readers of this blog know that represents an important achievement, as coal emits more carbon dioxide per unit of energy than do the other fuels. However, in 2017, that achievement reversed itself, and demand for energy from burning coal rose again.
In 2017, the largest increase in energy demand was met by burning natural gas. The second largest increase in energy demand was met by renewable energy.
Overall, the report is not good news. As readers of this blog know, to prevent the worst effects of climate change, greenhouse gas emissions need to peak, and then be significantly reduced. There is no sign that is occurring. To quote the report:
The IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario charts a path towards meeting long-term climate goals. Under this scenario, global emissions need to peak soon and decline steeply to 2020; this decline will now need to be even greater given the increase in emissions in 2017. The share of low-carbon energy sources must increase by 1.1 percentage points every year, more than five-times the growth registered in 2017. In the power sector, specifically, generation from renewable sources must increase by an average 700 TWh annually in that scenario, an 80% increase compared to the 380 TWh increase registered in 2017. (International Energy Agency, 2018, p. 4)
Source
International Energy Agency. 2018. Global Energy & CO2 Status Report, 2017. Downloaded 4/18/2018 from https://www.iea.org/geco.
Social Cost of Carbon Update
We know that emitting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere causes climate change. We also know that climate change is causing damage, and that it will cause even greater damage in the future. But how much damage? Can anybody put a dollar sign on the cost?
That is just what a group called the Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon (IWGSCGG) tries to do. The task is especially difficult because the damage caused by carbon dioxide does not occur when it is first emitted. Carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for 80-100 years, and it continues to cause global warming the whole time it is there. The damages from carbon dioxide emitted today will continue to accrue over the entire 80-100 years. As the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere continues to rise, climate change will accelerate, and the damage it causes will increase. Thus, a metric ton of carbon dioxide emitted in 2050 is expected to cause more damage than a ton emitted in 2010.
First the numbers, then some background on what it means. The IWGSCGG uses several different methods to estimate the future costs of carbon emissions. Then they average the estimates and adjust them for inflation back to 2007 dollars. In calculations of this sort, the assumed inflation rate often has a large effect on the outcome.
Table 1. Data source: IWGSCGG 2016
In Table 1, the left column represents years in which a ton of CO2 might be emitted. The next three columns each assume a different inflation rate. The column on the far right represents similar information as the 3.0% Discount Average column, except instead of taking the average damage cost estimate, they took the 95th percentile. The idea is that, if inflation is 3.0%, the odds are 95% that the cost of the damage will be no higher than the values in this column.
The 3% discount rate is the one the author’s adopt as their most likely scenario. So, to say this data in plain English:
The most plausible estimate of the damage caused by each metric ton of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere in 2010 is $31. The damage caused by each metric ton emitted in 2015 is $36, and for each metric ton emitted in 2020 it will be $42, and for each metric ton emitted 2050 it will be $69.
Compared to estimates made in 2013, the damages are estimated to be 1-2 dollars less per metric ton.
In 2010, the United States emitted an estimated 5,736.4 million metric tons of CO2. At $32 per metric ton, that equates to $183.6 billion. The GDP of the United States in 2010 was $14,958 billion, so the damage is roughly equal to 1.2% of our total economic output.
Why is this estimate important? Policy makers need to analyze the costs and benefits of the programs they mandate. Avoided future damage is a significant benefit, so they need to estimate how much future cost is avoided. The report suggests that the United States could spend up to $183.6 billion per year to reduce CO2 emissions, and be paid back by the damage prevented.
This report is an update of the second IWGSCGG report, issued in 2013. The cost estimates changed between reports because of increased knowledge about climate change and improvements in the computer models used to make the estimates. There is still considerable uncertainty here, but the IWGSCGG estimate may be the best estimate available.
Sources:
Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases. 2016. Technical Support Document: – Technical Update of the Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis – Under Executive Order 12866. Downloaded 3/20/2018 from https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-12/documents/sc_co2_tsd_august_2016.pdf.
For U.S. greenhouse gas emissions: EPA > Climate Change > Emissions > National Data, http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/usinventoryreport.html.
For U.S. GDP: Bureau of Economic Analysis > National Economic Accounts > Current Dollar and “Real” GDP (Excel Spreadsheet). http://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm#gdp.
Worldwide Carbon Dioxide Emissions Holding Constant
A recent article in the New York Times by Eduardo Porter (here) points out that if one considers only carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) from the combustion of fuels, then worldwide emissions have been flat for 3 years in a row.
Figure 1. Source: International Energy Agency, 2017b.
The finding comes from a news release issued by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Figure 1 shows the data. Between 1980 and 2014, global CO2 emissions from fuel combustion grew from 17.7 billion metric tons to 32.3 billion metric tons. However, in 2015 they stayed at 32.3 billion metric tons, and in 2016 emissions were 32.1 billion metric tons. (IEA 2017a, 2017b)
Since 2005, CO2 emissions from fuel combustion have declined in the OECD from 12.8 billion metric tons to 11.7 billion metric tons, a decline of 8.6%. In the United States, emissions declined from 6.71 billion metric tons to 5.00 metric tons (a decline of 25%). That’s good work, however it needs to be put in context. Compared to 1990, OECD emissions in 2016 were 6.4% higher, and USA emissions were 4.1% higher. (IEA 2017a)
I don’t have breakouts by country for 2016, but in 2015 the world’s largest emitter of CO2 from fuel combustion was the People’s Republic of China (mainland China), at 7.28 billion metric tons. Even China is reducing its emissions, however, by 1% in both 2015 and 2016. (IEA 2017a)
Emissions from fuel combustion may be the best estimate of worldwide emissions available. They constitute the largest percentage of emissions, and it is virtually impossible to inventory how much methane is being released by every bog or permafrost around the world, or how much nitrogen oxide from farm chemicals, etc.
Figure 2. Source: Earth Systems Research Laboratory, 2017.
In August I posted that the American Meteorological Society reported that in 2015 the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere averaged above 400 ppm for the first time ever. It was my opinion that this was terrible news: 400 ppm was something akin to a threshold we needed not to cross in order to avoid the worst effects of climate change. We crossed it decades before anybody thought we would. Further, the concentration of greenhouse gases was continuing to increase, and the rate of increase seemed, if anything, to be growing over time. Figure 2 repeats the chart showing the trend over time.
How can one reconcile that post with the new findings? Imagine you are on the Titanic, and an hour ago the ship struck an iceberg. The ship’s crew happily reports that the amount of water getting into the ship is no longer increasing minute-by-minute. Well, that’s nice to hear, but water is still pouring into the ship, and unless you can stop the water getting in, the ship will still sink. The CO2 situation is similar, but in reverse. The rate at which the world is putting CO2 into the atmosphere may not be going up, but we are still putting billions of tons of it into the atmosphere every year. It is more than enough to cause climate change. We don’t need emissions to flatten, we need them to decrease to a fraction of what they are today.
So, it is good news that worldwide emissions have not grown over the last 3 years. Perhaps it even tends to validate the efforts we’ve been making: maybe moving away from fossil fuels, especially coal, has helped stabilize emissions. But we have a long way to go before we stop this vessel of ours from sinking.
UPDATE: The Global Carbon Project released a report published 11/13/2017 (after this post was written) that projects 2017 carbon emissions from combustion of fuels will increase 2% from 2016. If their estimates prove correct, then the period of flat emissions will be over, and emissions will have resumed their upward climb. (Global Carbon Project, 2017)
Sources:
Earth System Research Laboratory. 2017. Full Mauna Loa CO2 Record. Downloaded 2017-06-15 from https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends.
Global Carbon Project. 2017. Global Carbon Budget: Summary Highlights. Viewed online 11/15/2017 at http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/17/highlights.htm.
International Energy Agency. 2017a. CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion: Highlights. Downloaded 11/09/2017 from https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/CO2EmissionsfromFuelCombustionHighlights2017.pdf
International Energy Agency. 2017b. IEA Finds CO2 Emissions Flat for Third Straight Year Even as Global Economy Grew in 2016. Downloaded 2017-11-09 from https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2017/march/iea-finds-co2-emissions-flat-for-third-straight-year-even-as-global-economy-grew.html.
Why 543 ppm CO2e Matters
In the last post I reviewed a report from the World Meteorological Organization; it said that in 2015 the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide reached 400 ppm for the first time. The methane and nitric oxide concentrations were 1,845 ppb and 328 ppb. Combined, I calculated that the 3 gases had a radiative forcing equal to 543 ppm CO2e.
[Note: When first published, this post contained a typographical error: in the title and in the first paragraph, I reported the CO2e as ppb (parts per billion). Parts per million (ppm) is correct, and I have made the change.]
More recent data from the Mauna Loa Observatory indicates that, since 2015, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has climbed to 409.65, meaning that the combined radiative forcing is now even higher. But what do these numbers mean? I will try to explain.
Most scientists studying climate change have emphasized that it is already too late to avoid its effects entirely – they are already happening. My recent posts on the declining snowpack of the western United States are just one example. I’ve also published numerous posts documenting the increase in temperature in Missouri and other states, the USA as a whole, and the world as a whole.
Figure 1. Source: IPCC 2014.
Scientists have also emphasized that the effects of climate change will depend on how much the temperature increases. The more the temperature increases, the more severe the effects will be. Figure 1 illustrates the conceptualization. In the chart, each column represents a system that climate change will affect. The 2 y-axis scales represent temperature change, the scale on the left relative to the period from 1986-2000, the one on the right relative to 1850-1900. The color coding of the columns represents the degree of risk that is projected. White and yellow represent less risk, red and purple represent more. There are no cut-off points in this graph, but you can see that as the temperature increases more than 2°C (relative to 1986-2000), the risk grows from moderate to high or very high.
How much the temperature will actually increase depends on how high radiative forcing goes, which will depend on the atmospheric concentration of GHGs. Carbon dioxide is the principal GHG.
Figure 2. Data source: Earth Systems Research Laboratory 2017b.
Figure 2 shows the average annual carbon dioxide concentration measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory from 1959 through 2016 in blue. During the last 10 years, the concentration grew an average of 0.57% each year. In red, Figure 1 projects the carbon dioxide concentration through 2100, assuming that it continues to grow at that rate each year. By 2100, the carbon dioxide concentration will have reached 651 ppm.
The future atmospheric concentration of GHGs depends on how much we continue to emit. To study the possibilities, scientists use a series of scenarios that range from sharply reduced emissions, through a middle ground, to very high emissions. They have changed the names they give these scenarios, and now call them RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5. RCP6 is associated with a carbon dioxide concentration in 2100 that is similar to the 651 ppm projection I calculated above. Thus, if emissions continue to grow at the same rate, the earth will approximate the RCP6 scenario.
Now, as I noted in the last post, the growth in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide seems to be accelerating. Thus, there is some question regarding whether the earth really is following the RCP6 scenario or something worse. For now, I will stay with RCP6.
Figure 3. Projected Temperature Increase Under Four RCP Scenarios. Source: Collins et al, 2013.
Figure 3 shows the mean temperature increase that is projected to occur under each RCP scenario, with RCP6 in orange. By 2100, a temperature increase of about 2°C is projected to occur. (One additional thing to note about this chart: the temperature increase under RCP6 and RCP 8.5 does not stabilize by 2100 – the temperature will continue to increase thereafter.)
Okay, now we’ve got what we need to draw some simple conclusions. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is increasing at a rate that, if it continues, will approximate the RCP6 scenario. That scenario is associated with a temperature increase of about 2°C compared to 1986-2000, and an even higher temperature thereafter. At that temperature increase, unique and sensitive systems will already be experiencing severe risk. And at that temperature increase, the global aggregate risk will grow from medium to high.
Well, if you come away thinking it is all a bit complex and vague, if not downright mealy-mouthed, I wouldn’t blame you. Climate scientists used to speak more directly, but then they came under attack from those who wanted to destroy them, and those days are gone. If you want to think further about the implications of all this, then think about these questions:
- What does it mean for the health of the planet, and for the health of our species on this planet, that we are following a course that puts unique and vulnerable systems under high risk? It’s already happening, just look around.
- What does it mean that we are following a course that will cause moderate-to-high aggregate global risk? What will the impacts be, and how will human life be affected?
- What does it mean for the health of the planet, and for the health of our species on this planet, that the increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide is not decelerating, but continuing to accelerate? The Kyoto Protocol was signed 20 years ago, and it was 11 years ago that climate change burst into widespread consciousness with Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth. What does it mean that we have known for so long that we need to address this problem, yet atmospheric GHG concentration growth continues to accelerate?
- What does it mean that, in the face of these facts, we elected a President who is hostile to the idea of climate change, and he appointed an EPA Administrator who is, also.
- Even absent our current President and EPA Administrator, have we shown any sign of being willing or able to undertake and accomplish the large-scale changes that will be necessary to address these problems?
The reality we face is becoming more dire each day, dear readers. We are passing danger signs like they mean nothing. We will have to live with the consequences for a very long time.
Sources:
Collins, M., R. Knutti, J. Arblaster, J.-L. Dufresne, T. Fichefet, P. Friedlingstein, X. Gao, W.J. Gutowski, T. Johns, G. Krinner, M. Shongwe, C. Tebaldi, A.J. Weaver and M. Wehner, 2013: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Com- mitments and Irreversibility. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
Earth System Research Laboratory. 2017 b. Mauna Loa CO2 Annual Mean Data. Downloaded 2017-06-15 from https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends.
IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
IPCC 2014: Summary for policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1-32.
World Meteorological Organization. 2016. WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin: The State of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere Based on Global Observations through 2015. Number 12, 24 October 2016. Downloaded 6/15/2017 from http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/gaw/ghg/GHGbulletin.html.
World Carbon Dioxide Concentration Above 400 ppm. for the First Time Ever
In 2015 the concentration of carbon dioxide was 400 ppm, for the first time ever. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) was 543 ppm.
Figure 1. Atmospheric Concentrations of GHGs in 2015 and Radiative Forcing from 1979-2015. Source: World Meteorological Organization.
In this post I will catch up with the Greenhouse Gas Bulletin published by the World Meteorological Society in October, 2016. It concerns atmospheric GHGs during 2015.
For the first time ever, the global concentration of carbon dioxide averaged 400 ppm, while the concentration of methane rose to 1,845 ppb, and the concentration of nitrous oxide rose to 328.0 ppb. These represent growth from 2014 of 0.58%, 0.60%, and 0.31%, respectively. The concentration of carbon dioxide is now 144% of what it was in 1750, while methane is 256% and nitrous oxide is 121%. The data are shown in Figure 1.
The report does not calculate the carbon dioxide equivalent of the three combined, but simply multiplying methane and nitrous oxide by their global warming potentials yields a combined carbon dioxide equivalent of 543 (using the 100-year global warming potentials published in the IPCC 4th AR).
Radiative forcing (the warming effect) of these GHGs was approximately 3.0 watts per meter in 2015 above 1750, compared to approximately 1.7 in1979.
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Figure 2. Source: Earth Systems Research Laboratory, 2017c.
Figure 2 shows the recent data on carbon dioxide concentration as measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory. The red line represents the actual measured value, and the black line represents the trend. This location is often taken as the best place to measure atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations because it is in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, far away from large local sources of carbon dioxide, high in the atmosphere, and buffeted by almost constant trade winds. The chart shows that the concentration of carbon dioxide surges each winter, then ebbs each summer. This seasonal effect is due to the summer greening of the Northern Hemisphere, where the bulk of the world’s land mass is. Once it has greened, the vegetation absorbs carbon dioxide and converts it to oxygen as part of the process of photosynthesis, pulling it out of the atmosphere. After the vegetation goes dormant during the winter, it does not absorb carbon dioxide, and the concentration increases.
The reading for May, 2017 was 409.65 ppm.
Earth Systems Research Laboratory, 2017 a.
Figure 3 shows the same data going back to the late 1950s. Though the concentration of carbon dioxide surges and ebbs each year, you can see that the trend is irrevocably upward. The peak each winter is higher than the previous winter’s high, and the low point each summer is higher than the previous summer’s low. At no time has this trend ever reversed, in fact it has never even slowed. If anything, the trend is curving upward, meaning it is increasing faster.
In the next post I will discuss what these findings mean.
Sources:
Forster, P., V. Ramaswamy, P. Artaxo, T. Berntsen, R. Betts, D.W. Fahey, J. Haywood, J. Lean, D.C. Lowe, G. Myhre, J. Nganga, R. Prinn, G. Raga, M. Schulz and R. Van Dorland, 2007: Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
Earth System Research Laboratory. 2017a. Full Mauna Loa CO2 Record. Downloaded 2017-06-15 from https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends.
Earth System Research Laboratory. 2017b. Mauna Loa CO2 Annual Mean Data. Downloaded 2017-06-15 from https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends.
Earth System Research Laboratory. 2017c. Recent Monthly Average Mauna Loa CO2. Downloaded 2017-06-15 from https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends.
World Meteorological Organization. 2016. WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin: The State of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere Based on Global Observations through 2015. Number 12, 24 October 2016. Downloaded 6/15/2017 from http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/gaw/ghg/GHGbulletin.html.
Invisible Pollution
You can’t always see air pollution in a photograph.
In the previous post I counted down the industrial facilities that are the 10 largest GHG emitters in Missouri, providing photos. Carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, is colorless and odorless: you can’t see it. What, then, do the photos I posted show? Here are a few more photos and a discussion of what can and can’t be seen in them.
The Clean Air Act requires the EPA to set standards for atmospheric concentrations of 6 common air pollutants (aka criteria air pollutants). They are ozone, sulfur dioxide, nitrous oxide, carbon monoxide, and two classes of particulates: particulates less than 2.5 micrometers in size (PM2.5), and those between 2.5 and 10 micrometers (PM10). (See here.) They are by no means the only air pollutants emitted by large industrial plants. Among the 10 largest GHG emitters in Missouri, other pollutants include carbon dioxide (of course!) plus as many as 15-20 toxic compounds, most commonly heavy metals like lead and mercury (EPA TRI Explorer). Heavy metals are contained in coal and released when it is burned, and are toxic even in small amounts.
At least 5 of these pollutants are colorless gases: ozone, sulfur dioxide, nitrous oxide, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide. You can’t see them in the plume emitted by an industrial facility (or by your car, for that matter), they are invisible. The remaining compounds are contained in escaping particulates.
So, several of the pollutants can’t be readily seen in the plume of an industrial plant, but they are dangerous none-the-less. Generally, only escaping particulates are readily seen. Lets look at some examples:
(Click on photos for a larger view.)
Figure 1. The Sioux Energy Center Before Dawn on a Winter Day. Photo by John May.
Figure 2. Mississippi Lime Co. Ste. Genevieve Plant on a Winter Morning. Photo by John May.
Figure 1 and Figure 2 show the Sioux Energy Center and the Mississippi Lime Company Ste. Genevieve Plant. The photos show dramatic white plumes belching from the chimneys of these two plants. Those white plumes sure are dramatic, but they are not the problem. They are mostly steam – water vapor. It condenses when it hits the air on a cold morning, forming dramatic white clouds. The dark parts of the cloud are simply shadow where the cloud has become thick enough to block the sun.
The problem is what is hidden inside the white plume. That is where the air pollutants are. In addition, if you look at the buildings in Figure 2, you can see a gray haze. Those are particulates. I don’t know if they are PM2.5, PM10, or even larger particles, or perhaps a combination of all 3. While taking the photo in Figure 2, I noticed a definite rotten-egg smell. That is usually caused by sulfur dioxide, and it suggests that sulfur dioxide was being emitted by the plant. You can’t see it, however, it is colorless.
Figure 3. The Labadie Energy Center on a Spring Morning. Photo by John May.
Figure 4. The Labadie Energy Center at Dawn on a Fall Morning. Photo by John May.
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Figure 3 shows the Labadie Energy Center on a warm day in May. No billowing clouds of steam are visible, it wasn’t cold enough to condense them. With the naked eye you could barely make out a slight plume coming from the chimneys. By using a polarizing filter, I could make it just a bit more obvious. Here we have a photo of the real pollution being emitted by this power plant. I think it is probably fly ash – those PM2.5 and PM10 particles the EPA tracks. Figure 4 is a photo of the Labadie Energy Center on an October morning. If you look very hard, you can see a slight discoloration above the stacks, but man, is it hard to see! Unless the emissions are backlighted, or unless the photo is enhanced, it is very, very difficult to see the pollution that belches forth from these facilities.
Figure 5. The Thomas Hill Energy Center at Dusk on a Fall Day. Photo by John May.
Figure 6. The Hawthorn Plant on a Fall Day. Photo by John May.
Figure 5 shows the Thomas Hill Power Plant and Figure 6 shows the Hawthorne Plant. The plants were pumping out electricity, which means the boilers were burning, but no plume is visible above the chimneys. The conditions just weren’t right to be able to see it.
If you look at all the photos of power plants, you can see that they share one characteristic: a tall chimney. The one at New Madrid is 800 ft. tall, Iatan, Rush Island, and Labadie have stacks that are 700 ft. tall, Thomas Hill’s stack is 620 ft. tall, the Sioux Energy Center stack is 603 ft. tall, and so forth. Tall chimneys like this are expensive, so there is a reason for them. Most of the pollutants emitted out of the chimneys are poisonous. If they were emitted at ground level, they would blow with the wind and cause harm. In addition, almost all of them are regulated by the EPA. If the chimneys were less tall, there is a chance that the pollution could reach the ground at concentrations still high enough to put the plant in violation. By building very tall chimneys, the company ensures that by the time any of the pollutants reach the ground, they have been diluted sufficiently so that they don’t create a violation. If you look at the photo of the Mississippi Lime Co. Ste. Genevieve Plant, you can see that its chimneys are much shorter, and perhaps that is why I could smell the sulfur dioxide.
In one sense, this is a good strategy: people and property in close proximity aren’t exposed to high concentrations of the pollutants. In another sense, it is a bad strategy: it puts pollutants into the environment, where they accumulate and cause widespread damage. Thus, pollution from facilities here in the Midwest contributes to smog, acid rain, mercury accumulation in fish, and GHG build-up in the atmosphere.
Figure 7. The Labadie Energy Center Seen From Midtown St. Louis at Dusk on a Winter Day. Photo by John May.
One final photo: Figure 7 is a photo of the Labadie Energy Center taken on a winter day from the top of a building opposite Forest Park in St. Louis. Expand the photo and you can see the chimneys on the horizon. The plant is some 30 miles away from the camera. The plume rises more than 2,000 feet into the air before the steam evaporates. How much higher than that does the column of polluted hot air rise? I don’t know, but I would expect quite a bit. Even this visible plume dominates the otherwise empty sky and horizon.
These plants come with important economic benefits, which I reviewed in the first post of this series, and we couldn’t do without them. But their pollution is also a big deal.
So, the point is that you can’t necessarily see the pollution being emitted by a large industrial emitter. If the sun is in just the right spot, you might be able to barely make out some particulates. But the other pollutants are all invisible. On a cold day, the plant will emit billowing clouds of water vapor. Water vapor itself is mostly harmless, but it stands as a reminder of the invisible pollution hidden within.
Sources:
Environmental Protection Agency. TRI Explorer, Release Facility Report. Data accessed 12/21/2016 at https://iaspub.epa.gov/triexplorer/tri_release.facility.
May, John. 2015. “Air Quality Update 2014.” Mogreenstats.com. Viewed online 12/21/2016 at https://mogreenstats.com/2015/11/06/air-quality-update-2014.
Wikipedia. List of Tallest Buildings in Missouri. Viewed online 12/21/2016 at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tallest_buildings_in_Missouri#Missouri.27s_tallest_structures.
Countdown of the Top 10 GHG Emitting Facilities in Missouri
In the previous post, I summarized information about the 10 GHG emitting facilities in Missouri. In this post, I will count them down and profile them.
When possible, for each facility I will give the date the plant entered service, the amount of GHG emitted, some of the economic benefit derived from the plant’s products, and closing plans that have been announced by the plant’s owner. Typically, closing plans for industrial facilities are not publicly discussed, but they are required by Integrated Resource Plans that public electric utilities must file. They often extend a decade or two into the future and have been formulated partially in response to EPA clean air regulations. Thus, as economic and regulatory environments change, and as technological alternatives become more or less feasible, I would expect closure plans to change with them.
And now, the countdown:
(Click on photos for a larger view.)
10. Meramec Energy Center. GHG emissions 2015: 2,324,558 MTCO2e.
Figure 1. The Meramec Engergy Center. Photo by John May.
The Meramec Energy Center is located in southeastern St. Louis County, at the confluence of the Meramec and Mississippi Rivers. It is a coal-burning electricity generating station with a nameplate capacity of 831 MW. In 2009, it generated 5,362,000 MWh (data from CARMA, www.carma.com). If the average home in the United States consumes 10.8 MWh per year (Energy Information Administration), then the Meramec Plant produces enough electricity to power 496,481 homes. It is owned by Union Electric Co., a subsidiary of Ameren Missouri.
It began operation in 1953, and according to an article 7/12/2014 in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Ameren announced plans to close the Meramec Energy Center in 2022. If emissions remain at the current level, by then it will have emitted an additional 13,947,348 MTCO2e into the atmosphere.
In 2015, the Meramec Energy Center emitted 2,324,558 million MTCO2e (EPA Facility Level Information on Greenhouse Gases Tool).
9. Mississippi Lime Company. GHG emissions 2015: 2,430,415 MTCO2e
Figure 2. The Mississippi Lime Co. Ste. Genevieve Plant. Photo by John May.
The Mississippi Lime Company is located just west of the city boundary of the City of Ste. Genevieve. It produces a variety of calcium products that are related to cement, but not equivalent, such as quicklime and hydrated lime. The output of this plant is unknown. It is a privately held company with headquarters in St. Louis.
Specific information about the plant is in short supply, but the history of the company on the company’s website indicates that the site was purchased and the kilns constructed during the 1920s. Future plans for the plant are unknown.
Greenhouse gases are emitted in 2 ways during calcium processing. To produce quicklime, for instance,
quarried limestone is crushed, and then heated at about 825°C in a kiln. Fossil fuel, most often coal, is burned to heat the kiln, releasing carbon dioxide. In addition, in the kiln, the limestone undergoes a chemical change that converts it to quicklime. This reaction releases carbon dioxide. The Mississippi Lime plant released 2,430,415 MTCO2e in 2015.
A footnote on the EPA website says that some of the CO2 emitted by the plant is captured and reused, not released into the atmosphere, but the amount is not specified.
8. Holcim Ste. Genevieve Plant. GHG emissions 2015: 2,598,048 MTCO2e.
Figure 3. The Holcim Ste. Genevieve Plant. Source: Thanks to Holcim (US) Inc. for supplying this photo, as I was unable to take one myself.
The Holcim Ste. Genevieve Plant is located on the Mississippi River at the northeastern corner of Ste. Geneieve County. Though across the county line, it is physically adjacent to the Rush Island Energy Center (see below). It is a cement manufacturing plant, and claims to have the largest single kiln line in the world. It is claimed to have the capacity to produce 4 million metric tons of cement per year. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that the Interstate Highway System contains 48 million metric tons of cement, so the Ste. Genevieve Plant turns out about 1/12th of that amount each year (USGS 2006). The plant is owned by Holcim US, a subsidiary of Holcim Ltd. of Switzerland.
The plant entered service in 2010, and future plans for the plant are not known. The Ste. Genevieve Plant received the EPA Energy Star Award for energy efficiency in each year from 2010-2015. It has also received Gold Certification from the Wildlife Habitat Council for its wildlife conservation efforts.
Greenhouse gases are emitted in 2 ways during cement production. Cement is produced by quarrying limestone, crushing it, and then heating it at about 1,500°C in a kiln. Fossil fuel, most often coal, is burned to heat the kiln, releasing carbon dioxide. In addition, in the kiln, the limestone undergoes a chemical change that converts it to cement. This reaction releases carbon dioxide.
The Holcim Ste. Genevieve Plant emitted 2,598,048 MTCO2e in 2015.
7. Hawthorn Plant. GHG emissions 2015: 3,145,642 MTCO2e.\
Figure 4. The Hawthorn Plant. Photo by John May.
The Hawthorn Plant is located along the banks of the Missouri River in northeastern Kansas City. It is a coal-burning electricity generating station with a nameplate capacity of 565 MW. In 2009, it generated 4,174,900 MWh (data from CARMA, www.carma.com). If the average home in the United States consumes 10.8 MWh per year (Energy Information Administration), then the Hawthorn Plant produces enough electricity to power 386,565 homes. It is owned by Kansas City Power and Light, a subsidiary of Great Plains Energy.
In the photo, to the right of the main structure stand several small boxy structures. Those are natural gas peaking generators. Though they still emit GHGs, they are cleaner than the coal-burning main plant. In addition, they can be started when electricity demand is peaking and turned off when it is slackening, compared to the coal-burning main plant, which cannot.
The Hawthorn Plant was built in stages between 1951 and 1969. The peaking generators entered service between 2000 and 2003. Regarding future plans for the station, in reply to a request for information, the company referred me to their website, where I could find none. (The company does not publish its Integrated Resource Plan, deeming it to be confidential.)
In 2015, the Hawthorn Plant emitted 3,145,642 million MTCO2e (EPA Facility Level Information on Greenhouse Gases Tool).
6. Sioux Energy Center. GHG emissions 2015: 4,314,760 MTCO2e.
Figure 5. The Sioux Energy Center. Photo by John May.
The Sioux Energy Center is located in northern St. Charles County, along the banks of the Mississippi River. It is a coal-burning electricity generating station with a nameplate capacity of 970 MW. In 2009, it generated 5,760,500 MWh (data from CARMA, www.carma.com). If the average home in the United States consumes 10.8 MWh per year (Energy Information Administration), then the Sioux Plant produces enough electricity to power 533,379 homes. It is owned by Union Electric Co., a subsidiary of Ameren Missouri.
It began operation in 1967, and Ameren filed a plan indicating it would be closed no later than 2033. If emissions remain at the current level, by then it will have emitted an additional 73.4 million MTCO2e.
In 2015, the Sioux Energy Center emitted 4,314,760 million MTCO2e (EPA Facility Level Information on Greenhouse Gases Tool).
5. New Madrid Power Station. GHG emissions 2015: 5,815,694 MTCO2e.
Figure 6. The New Madrid Power Station. Photo by John May.
The New Madrid Power Station is located along the banks of the Mississippi River six miles southwest of New Madrid, Mo. It is a coal-burning electricity generating station with a nameplate capacity of 1,200 MW. In 2009 it generated 7,246,800 MWh of electricity. If the average home in the United States consumes 10.8 MWh per year (Energy Information Administration), then the New Madrid Plant produces enough electricity to power 671,000 homes. It is owned by the Associated Electric Cooperative. AEC provides electricity to 51 local electricity cooperatives throughout Missouri and in parts of Oklahoma, and Iowa.
It’s two units entered service in 1972 and 1977. Regarding future plans for the station: in reply to a request for information, the company stated that it had no plans to close or convert the fuel source for the plant (Viquet 2016).
In 2015, the New Madrid Power Station emitted 5,815,694 million MTCO2e (EPA Facility Level Information on Greenhouse Gases Tool).
4. Rush Island Energy Center. GHG emissions 2015: 6,833,938 MTCO2e.
Figure 7. The Rush Island Energy Center. Photo by John May.
The Rush Island Energy Center is located at the southeastern corner of Jefferson County along the banks of the Mississippi River, adjacent to the Holcim St. Genevieve plant (see above). It is a coal-burning electricity generating station with a nameplate capacity of 1,180 MW. In 2009, it generated 8,017,200 MWh (data from CARMA, www.carma.com). If the average home in the United States consumes 10.8 MWh per year (Energy Information Administration), then the Sioux Plant produces enough electricity to power 742,333 homes. It is owned by Union Electric Co., a subsidiary of Ameren Missouri.
It began operation in 1976, and Ameren’s 2014 Integrated Resource Plan stated that the company had “developed assumptions for an evaluation of retirements of Labadie and Rush Island Energy Centers.” (Ameren Missouri 2016) I don’t understand this statement to indicate that Ameren is considering closing the facility, only that they have developed a set of assumptions that will be used in an ongoing fashion to monitor its viability.
In 2015, the Rush Island Energy Center emitted 6,833,938 million MTCO2e (EPA Facility Level Information on Greenhouse Gases Tool).
Note: On 1/23/17 the U.S. District Court for Eastern Missouri found the Rush Island Energy Center in violation of the Clean Air Act because Ameren Missouri had performed major modifications to the facility without installing required pollution control equipment. Ameren had tried avoid its obligation by characterizing the work as routine maintenance.
3. Thomas Hill Energy Center. GHG emissions 2015: 7,506,076 MTCO2e
Figure 8. The Thomas Hill Energy Center. Photo by John May.
The Thomas Hill Energy Center is located on the banks of the Thomas Hill Reservoir, about 12 miles northwest of Moberly. It is a coal-burning electricity generating station with a nameplate capacity of 1,135 MW. In 2009 it generated 7,379,800 MWh of electricity. If the average home in the United States consumes 10.8 MWh per year (Energy Information Administration), then the Thomas Hill Energy Center produces enough electricity to power 683,315 homes. It is owned by the Associated Electric Cooperative. AEC provides electricity to 51 local electricity cooperatives throughout Missouri and in parts of Okalahoma, and Iowa.
Thomas Hill’s three generating units entered service in 1966, 1969, and 1982. Regarding future plans for the station: in reply to a request for information, the company stated that it had no plans to close or convert the fuel source for the plant (Viquet 2016).
In 2015, the Thomas Hill Energy Center emitted 7,506,076 million MTCO2e (EPA Facility Level Information on Greenhouse Gases Tool).
2. Iatan Generating Station. GHG emissions 2015: 8,911,498 MTCO2e.
Figure 9. The Iatan Generating Station. Photo by John May.
The Iatan Generating Station is located in northwestern Platte County, along the banks of the Missouri River, between Kansas City and St. Joseph. It is a coal-burning electricity generating station with a nameplate capacity of 1,576 MW. It is the second largest generating station in Missouri, and the state’s second largest GHG emitter. The second unit at Iatan entered service after 2010, so generating statistics for 2009 are irrelevant. It is owned by Kansas City Power and Light, a subsidiary of Great Plains Energy.
Iatan’s 2 generating units entered service in 1980 and 2010. Regarding future plans for the station, in reply to a request for information, the company referred me to their website, where I could find none. Given that the second unit was completed only 6 years ago, I would expect the company plans to continue to operate the plant for the foreseeable future.
In 2015, the Iatan Generating Station emitted 8,911,498 million MTCO2e (EPA Facility Level Information on Greenhouse Gases Tool).
1. Labadie Energy Center. GHG emissions 2015: 14,754,371 MTCO2e.
Figure 10. The Labadie Energy Center. Photo by John May.
The Labadie Energy Center is located in Franklin County along the banks of the Missouri River east of Washington. It is Missouri’s largest coal-burning electricity generating station, with a nameplate capacity of 2,372 MW, about half-again as large as the Iatan Station. In 2009, it generated 17,238,000 MWh (data from CARMA, www.carma.com). If the average home in the United States consumes 10.8 MWh per year (Energy Information Administration), then the Labadie Energy Center produced enough electricity to power 1,596,111 homes. It is owned by Union Electric Co., a subsidiary of Ameren.
It began operation in 1976, and Ameren’s 2014 Integrated Resource Plan stated that the company had “developed assumptions for an evaluation of retirements of Labadie and Rush Island Energy Centers.” (Ameren Missouri 2016) I don’t understand this statement to indicate that Ameren is considering closing the facility, only that they have developed a set of assumptions that will be used in an ongoing fashion to monitor its viability.
In 2015, the Labadie Energy Center emitted 14,754,371 million MTCO2e (EPA Facility Level Information on Greenhouse Gases Tool).
As you have read this post, you probably noticed that some of the photos showed billowing white clouds gushing out of a chimney, some showed a thin plume, and some showed no plume at all. I think the differences make for an interesting discussion, and they will be the focus of the next post.
Sources:
Ameren Missouri. 2016. Integrated Resource Plan. Viewed online 12/10/2016 at https://www.ameren.com/missouri/environment/renewables/ameren-missouri-irp.
Energy Information Administration. Frequently Asked Questions: How much electricity does an American home use? Accessed 10/20/2016 at https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=97&t=3.
EPA. Facility Level Information on Greenhouse Gases Tool. http://ghgdata.epa.gov/ghgp/main.do. Data downloaded 10/20/2016.
EPA. 2015. EPA Fact Sheet: Social Cost of Carbon. Downloaded 12/10/2016 from https://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/Downloads/EPAactivities/social-cost-carbon.pdf.
EPA. 2015. Facility Profile Report: Ameren Missouri Labadie Energy Center. Retrieved online 12/10/2016 at https://iaspub.epa.gov/triexplorer/release_fac_profile?TRI=63055LBDPWNO10L&year=2011&trilib=TRIQ1&FLD=&FLD=RELLBY&FLD=TSFDSP&OFFDISPD=&OTHDISPD=&ONDISPD=&OTHOFFD=.
Genova, Marcus, Area Environmental and Public Affairs Manager, Holcim (US) Inc. Email message to John May 1/10/2017.
United States v. Ameren Missouri. Case 4:11-cv-00077-RWS, U.S. District Court for Eastern District of Missouri. Viewed online 1/25/2017 at http://www.moed.uscourts.gov/sites/default/files/Ameren%20Memorandum%20and%20Order.pdf.
U.S. Census Bureau. Quick Facts: Missouri. Viewed online 12/10/2016 at http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/29.
U.S. Geological Survey. 2006. Materials in Use in the U.S. Interstate Highways. Viewed online 12/10/2016 at https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2006/3127/2006-3127.pdf.
Viquet, Mark, email message to author, 12/12/2016.
Ten Largest GHG Emitters in Missouri
Missouri’s 10 largest GHG emitting industrial facilities reduced emissions by 5.6 MTCO2e between 2013 and 2015.
In early 2015, I reported on the 10 largest point source greenhouse gas emitters in Missouri. Nine out of 10 were coal burning electricity generating stations, and together Missouri’s big three public electric utilities (Ameren, Great Plains, and Associated Electrical Cooperative) accounted for 73% of all Missouri large source GHG emissions. The original post is here.
I thought that I would update the information and add a little more depth. What follows is a 3-post series on Missouri’s 10 largest single-source GHG emitters. The first post discusses the data in general, the second counts down the 10 facilities, and the third post discusses what is revealed and what is hidden in photographs of these facilities.
(Click on chart for larger view.)
Figure 1. Data source: EPA Facility Level Greenhouse Gases Tool.
Figure 1 shows emissions for the 10 largest point source GHG emitters in Missouri in 2015. They are the same facilities as in 2013, except that the Montrose Generating Station has dropped out of the top 10, and the Mississippi Lime Company Ste. Genevieve Plant has joined it. It’s not surprising that the list hasn’t changed much – major industrial plants like these aren’t built every day. Every emitter on the list reduced emissions between 2013 and 2015. As a group, emissions were 5,621,792 MTCO2e less in 2015 than in 2013. (MTCO2e = million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent. An explanation of carbon dioxide equivalent can be found at Wikipedia.) As a percentage, the New Madrid Power Station reduced emissions the most (-21%), and the Hawthorn Plant was second (-15%). I don’t know the reason for the decreases.
These plants each represent hundreds of millions of dollars of investment, perhaps even more. They produce economic benefits through the jobs they provide and the products they produce. There is no way I can catalog all those benefits. No single statistic can do them justice, but the following may give some idea of their scale: data on the amount of electricity generated yearly is available for 7 of the 8 generating stations in the list. Summed, it totals to over 4 million megawatt hours (MWh). It is enough to provide electricity to almost twice as many homes as there are in Missouri. (U.S. Census Bureau) Take these power plants away, and that many homes go dark: no lights, no refrigerators, no heat, no air conditioning, no washing machines, no computers, no internet, no TV, and probably no phones. You get the picture: we simply couldn’t do without them.
At the same time, added together, these facilities emitted 58.6 million MTCO2e. GHG emissions cause about $36 of damage per MTCO2e (EPA 2015). Thus, the estimated damage from one year’s carbon emissions from these plants would be $2.11 billion. And they emit roughly that much CO2, causing that much damage, every year.
In addition, these plants release a host of other toxic compounds. For instance, the EPAs Toxic Release Inventory Explorer includes the following compounds among the Labadie Energy Center’s releases: arsenic compounds, barium compounds, chromium compounds, cobalt compounds, copper compounds, hydrochloric acid, hydrogen fluoride, lead compounds, manganese compounds, mercury compounds, nickel compounds, polycyclic aromatic compounds, sulfuric acid, thallium compounds, vanadium compounds, and zinc compounds. (EPA 2011) These compounds are toxic, and they contribute to illness and premature death, which, in addition to being personal tragedies, also carry an economic burden of their own.
The point is this: these facilities create harm, but be careful about villainizing them. The products they produce are essential. We must find ways of living that take the heat out of climate change, but it is hard work, and the onus falls on us as much as it does on these industrial plants. As the saying goes, there’s nobody here but us chickens.
In the next post I will count down and profile each of the top 10 emitting facilities.
Sources:
Ameren Missouri. 2016. Integrated Resource Plan. Viewed online 12/10/2016 at https://www.ameren.com/missouri/environment/renewables/ameren-missouri-irp.
Energy Information Administration. Frequently Asked Questions: How much electricity does an American home use? Accessed 10/20/2016 at https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=97&t=3.
EPA. Facility Level Information on Greenhouse Gases Tool. http://ghgdata.epa.gov/ghgp/main.do. Data downloaded 10/20/2016.
EPA. 2015. EPA Fact Sheet: Social Cost of Carbon. Downloaded 12/10/2016 from https://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/Downloads/EPAactivities/social-cost-carbon.pdf.
EPA. 2015. Facility Profile Report: Ameren Missouri Labadie Energy Center. Retrieved online 12/10/2016 at https://iaspub.epa.gov/triexplorer/release_fac_profile?TRI=63055LBDPWNO10L&year=2011&trilib=TRIQ1&FLD=&FLD=RELLBY&FLD=TSFDSP&OFFDISPD=&OTHDISPD=&ONDISPD=&OTHOFFD=.
U.S. Census Bureau. Quick Facts: Missouri. Viewed online 12/10/2016 at http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/29.
U.S. Geological Survey. 2006. Materials in Use in the U.S. Interstate Highways. Viewed online 12/10/2016 at https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2006/3127/2006-3127.pdf.
MoGreenStats 