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Prescribed Burning in Forests and Carbon Sequestration

Prescribed burns in forests may decrease carbon sequestration in the short term, but they increase the forest’s ability to sequester carbon in the long term.

So says a recent literature review published by the Missouri Department of Conservation.

Readers of this blog may recall that almost 3 years ago I published an 8-part series on wildfire in forests, and the role fire can have in promoting the health of the forest. Since then, I have published several updates. In that series, I reported that the Missouri Department of Conservation uses prescribed burning as a forest management tool, and it encourages private landowners to do so, too.

The literature review concludes that, though forests are complex, and general principles will not hold true for every plot within them, in the Missouri Ozarks:

  1. Fuel-reduction treatment (e.g. prescribed burning) reduces the risk of a large stand-destroying fire. When a whole stand is destroyed, all of the carbon sequestered in the trees is released into the atmosphere. Further, the forest is slow to regrow.
  2. Thinning using prescribed fire reduces competition among trees and provides additional ground nutrients, resulting in better growth.
  3. Forests managed with a combination of thinning and prescribed burning have lower carbon emissions than other types of forests. (Yes, they actually get out there and measure the gases emitted by different types of forest land.)
  4. During a prescribed burn, large trees are generally not killed by the fire, but small sprouts and herbaceous understory are. Burning the leaf litter and herbaceous understory results in a short-term increase in carbon released into the atmosphere. This is more than made-up for, however, by the increased vigor and growth of the remaining forest. The increased growth sequesters more carbon than was released in the prescribed burn.
  5. The soil in forests consist of a rich mixture of plant roots, moss and other vegetation, bugs, worms, microorganisms, and chemical compounds, including carbon (partially decayed remains of living things that have worked their way into the soil). There has been concern that prescribed burning would release the carbon sequestered in the soil. So far, research indicates that there is no difference in the carbon sequestration of the soil in control plots vs. plots that have had prescribed burns applied. In addition, no difference has been found between plots that are burned annually vs. plots that are burned every 4 years. The concern is understandable, but so far it appears incorrect.
  6. Soil respiration (the ability of oxygen to penetrate to the roots of plants) is not affected by prescribed burning.

Forests have not traditionally been managed with increased carbon sequestration as a major goal. However, the literature review seems to indicate that prescribed burning may be a technique that can lead to increased carbon sequestration in forest, through increased vigor and growth of the trees in the forest.

Source:

Ball, Liz. Undated. “The relationship between prescribed fire management and carbon storage in the Missouri Ozarks.” Missouri Department of Conservation. Downloaded 8/22/2019 from https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/acfb/673db5694db7389e7bf7190211fb5ec75885.pdf.

The Heat Is On, the Fires Are Burning


In June of this year, Europe experienced a severe heat wave. The heat returned in July. It was the hottest it has ever been. Massive wildfires are burning in Siberia and Alaska. In St. Louis, the temperature has been normal to a bit mild for summer, but in other parts of the world, the heat is on.


Figure 1. Source: European Space Agency.

In Europe, the immediate cause of the heat was high pressure over the Sahara Desert, pushing hot air northward over Europe. The first episode occurred in late June, and Figure 1 maps temperature on June 26. Southern Europe is usually warmer than Northern Europe, and indeed, the hottest temperatures were in Spain and Italy. Sporadic places in France and Germany got very hot, too: Veragues, France, hit 114.8°F on June 28, and Brandenberg, Germany, reached 101.5°.

Buildings in Northern Europe were not built to cope with extreme heat; most do not have air conditioning. When a heat wave struck in 2003, it killed 15,000 people in France. This time, they were more prepared: 4,000 schools closed, the authorities opened public cooling rooms, and swimming pools offered extended hours. Other countries took similar actions and, as a result, only 13 died.

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Figure 2. Source: NOAA, July 25, 2019.

In July, the heat returned (Figure 2). A large swath of Northern France, Belgium, and The Netherlands topped out between 104 and 113°F. The high temperature in Belgium was 107.2°F, exceeding the previous record by 5.4°F. Two nuclear reactors in France had to be completely shut down, and 6 more had to curtail generation due to the heat. Thousands of animals died from the heat, as ventilators in barns were overwhelmed or transport trucks overheated. England set an all-time record maximum temperature on July 25, when the temperature hit 101.7 in Cambridge.

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Figure 3. Source: NASA.

The heat is causing problems outside Europe, as well. Wildfires have broken out across the Arctic. Figure 3 shows the hotspots, as seen from space. This is a polar view, and it is upside-down: the North Pole is in the center near the bottom. Alaska is on the bottom left. The Aleutian Islands are at upper left, with Siberian Russia stretching across the top 1/2 of the image. Fires that can be sensed from space are in red.

As of August 2, 48 large wildfires were actively burning in Alaska, and they have consumed 1,604,724 acres. That is 2,507 square miles, roughly equal to half of Connecticut. Only 1 is contained.

It’s even worse in Siberia. Russian authorities state that 2.7 million hectares (6.67 million acres) are actively burning. It is hard to give meaning to a statistic like that, but it is an area larger than the entire State of Connecticut. This level of fire activity is unprecedented. Originally, Russian authorities did not try to fight the fires, as they were in hard-to-reach areas. Much of Siberia is hard to reach, actually, it is part of the reason the area has not developed more. Now, however, according to the New York Times, Russia has scrambled military transport planes and helicopters to fight the fires, as smoke impacts an ever wider area, including populated cities. These fires are likely to grow even larger before they subside.

Greenland experienced a record melt event in mid-June. As you may know, Greenland is a large island in the Atlantic Ocean. It is in the far north, being the second closest land to the North Pole. It’s very large ice sheet is second in size only to that of the Antarctic, and it has been melting (one of the causes of rising sea levels). Well, the European heat wave in June caused ice to melt over 270,000 square miles of the ice sheet, resulting in an estimated 80 billion tons of ice melting between June 11 and 20, the largest ice-melt event ever recorded this early in the season.

These sorts of events are on the increase. In 2010, wildfires in Russia caused an estimated $15 billion in damage. In 2003, a heat wave in France killed an estimated 15,000. In both cases, authorities were unprepared, because such things had never happened before. What’s going on?

The answer is simple, but unpleasant: climate change.

Here comes the future.

Sources:

European Space Agency [CC BY-SA 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)%5D The Heat Is On. Downloaded 8/2/2019 from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:The_heat_is_on_(48138322288).jpg.

National Interagency Fire Center. Daily Report, 8/2/2019. Viewed online 8/2/2019 at https://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/nfn.htm.

Russian Federal Forestry Agency, quoted in NASA. Siberian Smoke Heading Towards U.S. and Canada. July 30, 2019. Viewed online 8/2/2019 at https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/goddard/2019/siberian-smoke-heading-towards-us-and-canada.

Nechepurenko, Ivan. 2019. “Russia Sends Military Planes to Fight Wildfires in Siberia.” The New York Times, 8/1/2019. Viewed online 8/2/2019 at https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/01/world/europe/russia-fire-siberia.html.

NASA. EOSDIS Worldview. Downloaded July 31, 2019 from https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-4352508.653594771,-321536,2992636.6535947714,4007936&p=arctic&t=2019-07-31-T00%3A00%3A00Z&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_BandsM11-I2-I1(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_Thermal_Anomalies_375m_Night(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_Thermal_Anomalies_375m_Day,MODIS_Terra_Thermal_Anomalies_All(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_Thermal_Anomalies_All(hidden),Coastlines.

National Snow & Ice Data Center. “A Record Melt Event in Mid-June.” Greenland Ice Sheet Today. Viewed online 8/4/2019 at https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/2019/07/a-record-melt-event-in-mid-june.

NOAA (Public domain). July 25 2019 Europe max temperatures.png. Downloaded 8/2/2019 from https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/49/July_25_2019_Europe_max_temperatures.png.

Wikipedia contributors, “1995 Chicago heat wave,” Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=1995_Chicago_heat_wave&oldid=906011873 (accessed August 2, 2019).

Wikipedia contributors, “2010 Russian wildfires,” Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2010_Russian_wildfires&oldid=892909422 (accessed August 2, 2019).

Wikipedia contributors, “June 2019 European heat wave,” Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=June_2019_European_heat_wave&oldid=908888400 (accessed August 2, 2019).

Wikipedia contributors, “July 2019 European heat wave,” Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=July_2019_European_heat_wave&oldid=908883144 (accessed August 2, 2019).

Western USA Snowpack and Reservoirs


I last reported on the snowpack and reservoirs in California and the Colorado River Basin at the end of January. At that time, the snowpack had gotten off to a slow start. Boy, did things change!


Most of the western USA has a monsoonal precipitation pattern: most of the rain falls during the winter, and from about March through the end of November, there usually isn’t much precipitation. For that reason, the entire region depends on stored water, either in reservoirs, or perhaps even more importantly, in the snowpack that builds up on the mountains. Because I have family in California, and because the long-term predictions for the water supply in the West have been grim, I have been following the status of the snowpack and the reservoirs in California and the Colorado River Basin. The most important measurement for the snowpack is usually around April 1, while maximum levels on the reservoirs typically occur some weeks later, as the snowpack melts. For instance, Lake Powell, the uppermost very large reservoir on the Colorado River, reaches its highest monthly average in July. Lake Shasta, the largest reservoir in California, reaches its highest average level in May.

Figure 1. Source: California Department of Water Resources, 2019a.

Figure 1 shows the snow water content of the snowpack in California. (The snow water content represents how much water there would be if you melted the snow in a given location. For instance, if you melted 7 inches of snow, it might only represent 1 inch of water.) The 3 charts represent the 3 major snowpack regions of California. The dark blue line is for 2019, while the light blue area represents average. The units along the y-axis represent percent of the April 1 average.

You can see that 2019 had an above average snowpack, maxing out at more than 150% of average in all 3 regions. By this time of year, the snowpack has largely melted. Notice the text at the bottom right: “Statewide Percent of Average for Date: 71%.” Despite having a snowpack that maxed out at 150% of average, the amount of snowpack remaining on this date is less than average. This illustrates another way that climate change is affecting California: temperatures are up, and the snowpack is melting more rapidly than in the past.

Figure 2. Source: Mammoth Mountain Ski Area, 2019.

I use Mammoth Mountain to illustrate snowfall amounts; it is located in the middle-south of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, south of Yosemite. Their website indicates that they are still open with 15” at the main lodge and 55” at the summit – on July 4th! Figure 2 shows snowfall at Mammoth Mountain by year and month. Paralleling the snowpack survey, this chart shows that 2019 was well above average at Mammoth, but not a record. There was one month with a lot of snow: February.

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Figure 3. Source: California Department of Water Resources, 2019b.

As a result, California’s reservoirs are all above average for this date, as shown in Figure 3. Even lake Oroville, which had to be mostly emptied when the dam eroded, threatening catastrophic failure, is nearing capacity. Every single reservoir is above average, and only one is not near capacity.

Many western states, including Southern California, are heavily dependent on water from the Colorado River. Lake Mead is the largest reservoir, and it is capable of holding more water than any other in the USA. For a couple of decades, there has been concern that water demands on the Colorado River had increased, and water supply into it had decreased, to the point that Lake Mead would be drained within a couple of decades. Over the last 5 years, water levels were so low that they flirted with the mandatory cut-back level: states would have lost a significant portion of their water.

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Figure 4 shows that snowpack in the Upper Colorado River Basin was higher than average in 2019, and this represents the 2nd time in the last 3 years. This snow melts into a number of reservoirs along the tributaries of the Colorado River, and then into Lake Powell, the first of the gigantic reservoirs along the Lower Colorado River Basin. From Lake Powell, it is released into Lake Mead. Figure 5 shows that Lake Mead is up from its record low a few years ago, but it is still historically very low.

Figure 4. Source: water-data.com, 2019b.

Figure 5. Source: water-data.com, 2019a.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The bottom line here is that the draught has finally broken in California, and that state is sitting on plenty of water for now. This was to be expected – nobody ever thought that California’s water supply problem would be a straight line from full to empty. The regions history, however, indicates that draught is a normal occurance for the state, and in recent years, wet periods have not lasted too long. The whole point of reservoirs is that they get drawn down during dry periods. So long as they get refilled before they are empty, the system is working just like it should. Three things can break the system, though: first, if water demand increases too much, and there just isn’t enough water to satisfy the demand. California is getting close to outstripping supply, as is all of the West. Second, wet years could get less wet, and then they might not be sufficient to refill the reservoirs. This year was sufficient to refill the California reservoirs, but Lake Mead still has a long way to go! And finally, if too many years go by before a wet one comes along, then the reservoirs could get sucked dry. California was getting close, and Santa Barbara, in particular, got really, really close.

The long term projection is still guarded, as population continues to enter western states and climate change continues to threaten the snowpack. How it will unfold year-by-year is anybody’s guess, but for now, things are better than they were a couple of years ago.

Sources:

California Department of Water Resources. 2019a. Current Reservoir Conditions. Downloaded 7/4/2019 from http://cdec.water.ca.gov/reportapp/javareports?name=rescond.pdf.

California Department of Water Resources. 2019b. California Snow Water Content, July 1, 2019, Percent of April Average. Downloaded 7/4/2019 from http://cdec.water.ca.gov/reportapp/javareports?name=PLOT_SWC.pdf.

water-data.com. 2019. Lake Mead Water Levels, All Time. Downloaded 7/4/2019 from http://graphs.water-data.com/lakemead.

water-data.com. 2019. Lake Mead Water Level: Averages by Month. Downloaded 7/4/2019 from http://lakepowell.water-data.com/index2.php.

water-data.com. 2019. Upper Colorado Basin Snowpack (Actual Values). Downloaded 7/4/2019 from http://graphs.water-data.com/ucsnowpack.

Mammoth Mountain Ski Area. 2019. Extended Snow Report. Downloaded 7/4/2019 from https://www.mammothmountain.com/winter/mountain-information/mountain-information.

The World’s Thinning Glaciers


Glaciers around the world are melting. Millions of people around the world who depend on them are likely to be impacted.


One of the signs of climate change that has received the most attention is the shrinking of glaciers around the world. Sometimes it is presented as a cause of sea level change, but it has only a minor effect on sea level. The Greenland Ice Cap and the Antarctic Ice Cap are far larger bodies of ice, and they will (and already do) contribute more to rising sea levels than do all the glaciers around the world. Further, much of the predicted rise in sea level is due to nothing more than the thermal expansion of water. You know, things expand as they heat up. Well, the oceans are projected to heat up only a little, but there is so much of them that expansion contributes significantly to the rise in sea level.

Melting glaciers matter for a different reason: people depend on them for water. Glaciers form the headwaters of many of the world’s rivers, great and small. Not meaning to make a comprehensive list, in Asia, the Indus, the Ganges, the Brahmaputra, the Yangtze, the Huang-ho (Yellow), and the Oxus all arise from glacial melt. In Europe, the Danube, the Rhine, and the Po all receive substantial glacial melt. In South America, the Madeira (largest tributary of the Amazon) receives glacial melt from about 1,000 miles of the east slope of the Andes. Finally, in North America, the Missouri, Columbia, Snake, Yukon, McKenzie, and Fraser Rivers all receive significant glacial melt.

Figure 1. Source: Schaner, Voisin, Nijssen, and Lettenmaier, 2012.

Figure 1 is a map indicating river basins for which at least 5% (green), 10% (yellow) 25% (orange), and 50% (red) of discharge is derived from glaciers in at least one month. (The “at least one month” qualification matters – glaciers melt much more during the warmer months of the year). Notice that one of the 2 largest blotches of color is located along the northwest coast of North America. This is a high mountain region that is very far north and close to an ocean: a perfect recipe for glaciers. The other is located in Central Asia, where the highest mountains in the world are located, and which receive the famous monsoons of India.

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Table 1. Source: Schaner, Voisin, Nijssen and Lettenmaier, 2012.

Table 1 shows the number of people and the land area that depend on glacial melt. Considering the world as a whole, an estimated 120 million people depend on rivers that get 50% or more of their water from glacial melt (1.8% of the world’s population). About 600 million people depend on rivers that get 5% or more of their water from glaciers (8.9%of the world’s population). So, we are talking about substantial numbers of people. Should the earth’s glaciers decline substantially, some of these people would be likely to lose access to water entirely, at least for part of the year. For others, important life-sustaining activities, such as agriculture or transportation, would be curtailed.

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Figure 2. Source: WGMS, 2017, updated, and earlier reports.

So what is the status of the world’s glaciers? Sadly, it is not good! The World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS) is a joint project of the World Data System, the International Association of Cryospheric Sciences, the United Nations Environment Program, the United Nations Education, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, and the World Meteorological Organization. The WGMS studies and monitors the world’s glaciers, and serves as a repository for data on them. They have a set of 30 glaciers around the world that have been repeatedly measured for at least the last 30 years (some much longer), with few or no gaps. Figure 2 shows the status of these 30 glaciers. The year is represented on the x-axis, and the change in mass is represented on the y-axis. The units on the y-axis are meter water equivalents, which are equal to metric tons per square meter of surface. Thus, in 2015, the year of greatest loss, these 30 glaciers collectively lost about 1.1 metric tons of ice per square meter of surface. When you consider that the earth has hundreds, if not thousands, of glaciers, then it becomes clear that we are talking about a lot of ice that is melting into water.

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Figure 3. Source: WGMS, 2017, updated, and earlier reports.

Many of these glaciers are hundreds or thousands of feet thick, and the loss in mass represents thinning of the glacier (melting from the top or bottom) every bit as much as it represents retreat (melting at the bottom end of the glacier). Figure 3 shows the cumulative loss in mass of these same 30 glaciers since 1950. Don’t be confused by the early values above 0 – the glaciers have been losing mass throughout, but for some reason, the WGMS set 1976 as zero, not 1950.

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Figure 4. Source: WGMS, 2017, updated, and earlier reports.

The reference glaciers are concentrated in North America and Europe more than in other continents. However, consider Figure 4, which shows the cumulative mass lost by region. Western Canada/USA and Central Europe have had greater loss than any other regions. However, all regions have had significant loss, including Svalbard and Jan Mayen (3rd worst), and Asia Central (4th worst).

I thought I would illustrate the global nature of the retreat with reference to a few very well known glaciers. Though not necessarily the largest or most important, they are famous.

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Figure 5. Mt. Everest and the Khumbu Glacier. Source: NASA 2011.

To represent Asia, I chose the Khumbu Glacier. Located in Nepal, this is the glacier of Mt. Everest. Base camp sits on it; climbers walk up it and through the Khumbu Ice Fall (where the glacier pours over a cliff), before starting their ascent of the mountain itself. It was measured 3 times: 1970, 2000, and 2016. Between 1970 and 2000, it thinned by an average of 300 cm. (9.8 feet) per year. Between 2000 and 2016, it thinned faster, by an average of 500 cm. (16.4 ft.) per year. (The surface of most glaciers collect dust and debris, thus parts of the glaciers turn brown or gray.)

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Figure 6 Photo by John May, 2015.

To represent Europe, I chose the Mer de Glace, the famous glacier just east of Mt. Blanc (and the 2nd largest in Europe). The first measurement of the Mer de Glace was in 1570. I told you some of these measurements went back more than 30 years! By the early 1600s, the front of the glacier had advanced by about 1,000 meters. It then varied until the late 1800s, when it began retreating. By the early 2000s, the front of the glacier had retreated about 1,000 meters from its 1570 location, and about 2,000 meters from its location during the mid-1800s. Meanwhile, the thickness of the glacier was measured in 1980, 2003, and 2012. Between 1980 and 2003, it thinned at a rate of about 18-20 mm. per year (0.06-0.065 ft.) Between 2003 and 2012, the thinning accelerated to about 160 mm. per year (0.5 ft.).

Figure 7. Source: NASA.

To represent North America, I chose the Muir Glacier: the photos of its retreat are as dramatic as any around the world. It was first measured in 1880, and since then its front has retreated about 29,000 meters (95,144 ft. or 18 miles). The photos in Figure 7 were taken in 1941 and 2004, and show about 7 of those 18 miles of retreat.

I’ve discussed what climate change and snowpack loss in the Northern Rockies might mean for the water supply in the Missouri River, and those who want to explore that topic can find the post here.

Glacial loss matters in some locations more than others. A very large number of people are likely to be affected, especially in Asia. Those people often live at a subsistence level; what loss of the glaciers will mean to them is hard to know. What kind of famine, pestilence, migration, political instability, and war might result is anybody’s guess.

Sources:

NASA. 2011. Adapted from ”everest_ali_2011298_geo.tif.” Downloaded 2019-07-01 from https://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=82578.

NASA. “Graphic: Dramatic Glacier Melt.” Global Climate Change. Downloaded 6/24/2019 from https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/4/graphic-dramatic-glacier-melt.

Schaner, Neil, Nathalie Voisin, Bart Nijssen, and Dennis P. Lettenmaier. 2012. “The Contribution of Glacier Melt to Streamflow.” Environmental Research Letters. 7 034029. Downloaded 6/24/2019 from https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034029.

WGMS. 2019. WGMS Flucuations of Glaciers Browser. Data accessed online 6/24/2019 at https://www.wgms.ch/fogbrowser.

WGMS (2017, updated, and earlier reports): Global Glacier Change Bulletin No. 2 (2014-2015). Zemp, M., Nussbaumer, S. U., Gärtner-Roer, I., Huber, J., Machguth, H., Paul, F., and Hoelzle, M. (eds.), ICSU(WDS)/IUGG(IACS)/UNEP/UNESCO/WMO, World Glacier Monitoring Service, Zurich, Switzer- land, 244 pp., based on database version: doi:10.5904/wgms-fog-2018-11. Downloaded 6/24/2019 from https://wgms.ch/global-glacier-state. (While this is the citation the source document suggests, the graphs used in this post were updated in January, 2019.)

No Decline in Missouri Crop Yields (Yet)

There have been some recent articles about how climate change is harming agriculture. One by Kim Severson in the New York Times (here) says “Drop a pin anywhere on a map of the United States and you’ll find disruption in the fields.” It goes on to discuss the impacts on “11 everyday foods”: tart cherries (Michigan), organic raspberries (New York), watermelons (Florida), chickpeas (Montana), wild blueberries (Maine), organic heirloom popcorn (Iowa), peaches (Georgia and South Carolina), organic apples (Washington), golden kiwi fruit (Texas), artichokes (California), and rice (Arkansas).

Well, that is a sampling of foods from around the country. I’m not so sure how “everyday” many of them are, but rice is certainly one of the basic grains.

A somewhat more convincing article by Chris McGreal in The Guardian interviewed farmers in valley of the Missouri River near Langdon, in northwestern Missouri. These are corn and soybean farmers. Their problem has been moisture: they have had too much rain. In many years, the ground has been so muddy that crops were ruined or not planted at all. In other years, the rain has caused the water table to rise so much that the ground looks dry on top, but is mucky mud just a few inches down. This is something, of course, that would affect river valleys the most, and the big river valleys in Missouri are some of the richest farmland the state has.

Figure 1. Data source: National Agriculture Statistics Service, USDA.

Most climate change studies project that climate change will impact agriculture negatively. Given this blog’s focus on the large statistical perspective, I thought it might be interesting to see how crop yields are doing in Missouri. The United States Department of Agriculture publishes the data. This data is a statistical average of yields across Missouri. Results in any one location may be different.

Figure 1 shows the per-acre yield for corn. The data shows that corn yields vary significantly from year-to-year, and that some years are really terrible, with yields being roughly half of what they are in good years. That said, there is a clear trend toward increased yields from 1957 right through 2014. Yields since then have been lower, and it is possible that we are looking at the start of a downward trend, but 4 years is not sufficient to tell.

Figure 2. Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA.

Figure 2 shows the per-acre yield for soybeans. The yearly variation here may be somewhat less, but the overall pattern is much the same. With soybeans, however, yields increased right through 2017.

This data doesn’t tell us why crop yields are rising. Perhaps they are due to improved farming practices and better seed stock. It is possible that warmer temperatures, an increase in carbon dioxide, and more rain have benefitted crop yields overall, even if they have hurt some farmers in some locations. We just don’t know, at least not from this data.

What we do know is that, overall, the predicted negative effects of climate change do not yet seem to be reducing yields in these two important crops.

Sources:

McGreal, Chris. 2018. “As Climate Change Bites in America’s Midwest, Farmers Are Desperate to Ring the Alarm.” The Guardian,” 12/12/2018. Viewed online 5/1/2018 at https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/dec/12/as-climate-change-bites-in-americas-midwest-farmers-are-desperate-to-ring-the-alarm.

Severson, Kim. 2019. “From Apples to Popcorn, Climate Change Is Altering the Foods America Grows.” The New York Times, 4/30/2019. Viewed online 5/1/2019 at https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/30/dining/farming-climate-change.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fclimate&action=click&contentCollection=climate&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront.

National Agriculture Statistics Service, United States Department of Agriculture. Quick Stats. This is a data portal that can be used to build a customized report. I focused on yield, in bushels per acre, for corn and soybeans from 1957-2018. Data downloaded 5/1/2019 from https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov.

State of the Climate in 2017

The IPCC report Global Warming of 1.5°C, and the Fourth National Climate Assessment were not the only climate related reports to be published in the second half of 2018. The American Meteorological Society also published its annual report on the climate, State of the Climate in 2017. Rather than a document assessing the effects of climate change, this documents presents a comprehensive picture of what the climate was like in 2017.

Figure 1. Source: Blunden, Arndt, and Hartfield, 2018.

Figure 1 shows in a single graphic the major climate variables that are discussed in the report. I will discuss each very briefly in order, going down each column before moving to the next column. I’ve made the chart to open in a separate browser tab, and you should be able to refer back and forth between my comments and the charts. In the charts, some of the data is shown as anomalies rather than as raw values, and in those cases, the reference period is given in the chart.

Charts (a) and (b) show the level of polar ozone, the 1st in March, the 2nd in October. This ozone is high-altitude ozone, and it is essential for blocking ultraviolet rays, too much of which are harmful. These charts concern the famous ozone hole of the 1980s. In general, the level in March bottomed in the 1980s, partially rebounded, but has again been trending downward. In October, the level bottomed in the 1980s and has been largely moving sideways since then.

Chart (c) shows the average surface temperature in the arctic. It has obviously been warming, some 3°C since the 1950s.

Chart (d) shows the average surface temperature of the whole earth. It has been warming, but not as much as the arctic. The recent several years show a steep spike upward.

Chart (e) shows temperature in the lower troposphere. This is the lowest layer of the earth’s atmosphere, and it is where almost all life occurs, as well as almost all weather. It has been warming, and you can see the same spike in recent years.

Chart (f) shows the temperature in the lower stratosphere. This is the next higher layer of the atmosphere. Near the equator it begins some 66,000 feet up, while at the poles it is lower, some 23,000 feet up. The temperature here has been cooling. I have seen some arguments that the cooling in the stratosphere compensates for the heat in the troposphere. This is like saying that cool weather in San Francisco means people can’t be dying from a heat wave in Chicago. Sorry, but it doesn’t mean any such thing.

Chart (g) plots the number of warm days (solid line) and cool nights (dotted line). Warm days have been increasing, and cool nights have been decreasing.

Chart (h) shows the area covered by arctic sea ice. The maximum is the solid line, the minimum the dotted line. Both have been decreasing, the minimum more severely.

Chart (i) shows antarctic sea ice. The variability between years has grown significantly, and the general trend appears to be increasing.

Chart (j) shows a measure of the amount of water locked-up as ice in all of the world’s glaciers. It has been declining at a significant rate. It will have implications for anyone and anything dependent on glaciers and/or glacial melt for water.

Chart (l) shows the amount of water vapor in the lower stratosphere. It is quite variable, but the trend appears to be toward slightly higher amounts of water vapor.

Chart (m) shows the level of cloudiness across the planet. There are several data sets. The trend appears to be towards convergence, with a slightly downward slope for at least some of the data sets.

Chart (n) shows the amount of water vapor in the entire atmosphere, top to bottom, over land. It has been increasing.

Chart (o) shows the amount of water vapor in the entire atmosphere, top to bottom, over the ocean. It, too, has been increasing.

Chart (p) shows the specific humidity in the upper troposphere. It appears to be declining slightly.

Chart (q) shows the specific humidity over land. It has been increasing. Specific humidity is not the humidity statistic we are used to, that is relative humidity (see below). The specific humidity is a measure of the mass of water vapor in an air sample compared to the mass of the other air in the sample.

Chart (r) shows the specific humidity over the ocean. It, too has been increasing.

Chart (s) shows relative humidity over the land. It has been decreasing. Relative humidity is a measure of the amount of water a sample of air is holding, compared to the maximum it could hold. Air’s ability to hold water increases with temperature, so it is possible for relative humidity to decrease, even while specific humidity increases, if the temperature rises.

Chart (t) Shows relative humidity over the ocean. It has been mostly moving sideways, but perhaps decreasing slightly.

Chart (u) shows the amount of precipitation over land. It moved mostly sideways until the 1980s, at which point it appears to have increased. The recent years have seen a significant spike upward.

Chart (v) shows the Southern Oscillation Index. This is a measure comparing air pressure in the western and eastern South Pacific. It tracks the El Niño phenomenon, with negative values indicating an El Niño, and positive values indicating a La Niña. I see no obvious trend in the data.

Chart (w) shows the amount of heat the ocean is holding. The amount of heat is not the same as the temperature: a 100° pot of water holds much more heat than a 100° pot of air, though both are the same size. The heat content of the oceans has bee increasing.

Chart (x) shows a measure of sea level. It has been rising. The scale is in millimeters, so the chart shows about a 6-inch rise.

Chart (y) shows the tropospheric ozone level in the tropics. It has been increasing. This is not the same as arctic ozone levels, which are measured in the stratosphere, where they help to block ultraviolet light from striking the earth. This is ground level ozone, a harmful pollutant. It is the ozone I track when I report on the Air Quality Index.

Chart (z) shows a measure of the speed of the wind in the troposphere. It has been increasing slightly.

Chart (aa) shows a measure of the speed of the wind over land. It has been decreasing.

Chart (ab) shows a measure of the speed of the wind over the ocean. It has been increasing.

Chart (ac) shows the amount of biomass being burned each year. It has been deecreasing.

Chart (ad) shows a measure of soil moisture across the earth. It has been moving sideways, a surprise to me, as I would have expected increased temperatures to dry the soil.

Chart (ae) shows terrestrial water storage. Though the data series is short, it appears to be declining. This variable concerns fresh water, and reflects ice sheets, glaciers, and lakes. Its decline is a matter of concern for all people, animals, and plants that depend on stored water.

Chart (af) shows global FAPAR. FAPAR is the amount of solar radiation available for absorption by plants during photosynthesis that actually gets absorbed. Though the data series is short, it was declining, but in recent years it has increased.

Chart (ag) shows the albedo of the land surface. Though the data series is short, it appears to be decreasing. Albedo is the reflectivity of the earth. High albedo means most of the light is reflected. Low albedo means most of the light is absorbed, causing the surface to warm. Black paint has a low albedo, white paint has a high albedo.

Sources:

Blunden, J., D. S. Arndt, and G. Hartfield , Eds., 2018: State of the Climate in 2017. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 99 (8), Si–S332, doi:10.1175/2018BAMSStateoftheClimate.1.

Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume 2

In my previous post I reported on the 4th National Climate Assessment, Volume 1. That volume deals with the natural science findings. Volume 2 deals with how climate change is projected to impact the United States, and with mitigation and adaptation. Unlike reports by the IPCC, the National Climate Assessment focuses on the United States. As with all of the IPCC and NCA reports, the 4th National Climate Assessment is far too large and substantive to fully summarize in a brief blog post. What follows is a selection of a few of the findings.

Damages by Sector

Figure 1. Source: US Global Change Research Program, 2018.

Figure 1 projects U.S. economic damage from climate change in 2090 under the low emission scenario (RCP 4.5) and the high emission scenario (8.5). The intangibles that make life worth living, what we call quality of life, are not easy to put a dollar value on, and this chart does not address them.

In the chart, the columns represent various sectors of the economy. The blue portion represents the damages under RCP 4.5, while the whole column represents the damages under RCP 8.5 Thus, the orange portion represents the difference between the two. The largest economic damages come from 3 sectors: Labor, Extreme Temperature Mortality, and Coastal Property. In addition, in most of the sectors, the damages under RCP 8.5 are more than twice the damages under RCP 4.5.

(Click on chart for larger view.)

Damages by Year Chart

Figure 2. Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2018.

Figure 2 shows projected carbon emissions, temperature change, and U.S. economic damage from climate change under various emission scenarios. The left side of the chart shows that observed carbon emissions are following the high scenario, and there is no evidence that they are suddenly about to revert to the low emission scenario. The right side shows that the high emissions scenarios lead to larger increases in temperature and correspondingly larger damages to the U.S. economy.

The Overview of the report summarizes some of the specific risks the USA faces from climate change. It is quite a list, but it puts real form to projections that often are statistical or vague. To paraphrase:

  • Rising sea levels, higher storm surges, and increased high tide flooding will impact coastal infrastructure, damaging electrical and natural gas supply lines, and causing problems with access to goods from overseas. About $1 trillion in coastal property will be impacted. Coastal cities will experience daily flooding.
  • Wildfire in the West will increase, damaging ranches and rangelands; increasingly it will damage property in cities and take human lives. Energy transmission and production will be damaged.
  • Thawing permafrost in Alaska will damage roads and buildings, including oil and gas operations. This will be partially offset by a longer ice-free season.
  • Yields of major U.S. crops (corn, soybeans, wheat, rice, sorghum, and cotton) are expected to decline due to higher temperatures and changes in water availability, disease, and pests. These will percolate through the economy, resulting in less availability of agricultural products, and increased prices.
  • Human productivity equal to almost 2 billion labor hours is expected to be lost annually due to extreme temperatures, resulting in an estimated $160 billion in lost wages. States in the Southeast and Southern Great Plains are expected to be impacted hardest.
  • Fresh water quality and quantity are threatened by rising temperatures, reduced mountain snowpack, sea level rise, saltwater intrusion, drought, flooding, and algal blooms. In some places, the availability of safe and dependable water will be threatened.
  • Hydropower supplies are expected to decrease as a result of changes in mountain snowpack.
  • Drought will impact oil and gas drilling and refining, all of which use water intensely.
  • Tourism will be impacted by changes in snowpack and wildfire. Communities dependent on tourism will be impacted.
  • Air quality will be impacted by higher temperature, higher humidity, and increased smoke from wildfires. Reduced air quality is expected to adversely impact human health.
  • Species already are, and will continue, to shift their growing ranges and growing seasons in response to climate change. Mismatches between species and the availability of the resources they need to survive are expected to occur. Extinctions and transformative impacts on some ecosystems are expected.
  • Heavy-to-severe coral bleaching is expected to onset across most of the Hawaiian Islands, Guam, and American Samoa by the late 2030s. This will impact fisheries yields and tourism. (Paradise Lost – where’s John Milton when you need him?)
  • Rising temperatures are expected to increase illness and death (especially among older adults, pregnant women, and children), partially (but only partially) offset by a reduction in cold-weather deaths.
  • Rising temperatures are expected to reduce electricity generation capacity while simultaneously increasing demand for it and its costs. Power outages and blackouts are expected to increase, and household budgets will be strained. Marginal populations and the economically disadvantaged will be impacted even more severely.
  • Rising temperatures are expected to threaten human health by promoting the growth of foodborne and waterborne pathogens. Diseases like Lyme disease, West Nile, chikungunya, dengue, and Zika are expected to spread and become more common.
  • Every armed service (but especially the Navy, Marines, and Coast Guard), has many bases located in coastal regions. They are expected to be threatened by climate change, and in some cases made unusable. Many of the transportation routes between these bases are similarly located in coastal regions and may become unusable. Thus, climate change is expected to become a significant challenge to the national security apparatus of this country.
  • All of the above expected effects of climate change are expected to cause increased stress, leading to increased rates of stress-related diseases, including mental illness.

In terms of mitigation and adaptation, the report states that power sector emissions were 25% below 2005 levels in 2016, the largest emissions reduction for a sector of the American economy over this time. This decline was in large part due to increases in natural gas and renewable energy generation, as well as enhanced energy efficiency standards and programs. Under continued business-as-usual projections, U.S. carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions show flat or declining trajectories over the next decade with a central estimate of about 15% to 20% reduction below 2005 levels by 2025. (While it is great that U.S. emission have declined, worldwide emissions continue to increase.)

State Mitigation Chart

Figure 3: Mitigation Policies by State and Type. Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program.

The report notes that efforts to adapt to climate change and to mitigate its effects have increased across the country, but are not even close to adequate. Adaptation is an issue for local planning, as it must take into account both the specific damages anticipated in the locale and many local characteristics such as topography, local water supply, etc. Mitigation follows pathways that are more common across different locations. Figure 3 shows is a map showing the number of GHG mitigation policies in place in each state, by type of policy.

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Missouri Chart

Figure 1. Source: U.S. Energy Information Agency.

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The fact that Missouri has mitigation policies in place does not necessarily mean that GHG emissions have substantially decreased. I last reported on state GHG emissions using data from 2013. At that time, Missouri’s GHG emissions from fossil fuel were still above their level in 2000. Figure 4 republishes a chart from that post showing GHG emissions over time from Missouri and some neighboring states.

The document contains a great deal more than I can report in this post. Those who are interested can follow the link in the Sources section below to the original document. The whole document is available as a single download, or you can download individual chapters.

Sources

USGCRP, 2018: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II [Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 1515 pp. doi: 10.7930/NCA4.2018. Downloaded 12/5/2018 from https://nca2018.globalchange.gov.

U.S. National Climate Assessment, Volume 1

The National Climate Assessment is the official United States Government report on climate change. The most recent assessment is the 4th one. It was issued in 2 volumes, the first of which was published in November, 2017. It focuses on the science of climate change and the changes that are likely to occur. The second volume was published in October, 2018. It focuses how the changes outlined in Volume 1 are projected to impact our country, and on some perspectives on adaptation.

In the remainder of this post, italics represent direct quotes from the Executive Summary of Volume 1. In parentheses, I give the page of the report where the quote can be found.

Temperature record

Figure 1. Source: USGCRP, 2017.

Global annually averaged surface air temperature has increased by about 1.8°F (1.0°C) over the last 115 years (1901–2016). This period is now the warmest in the history of modern civilization. (p.1) In Figure 1, the chart on the left presents a graph of the increase in temperature. The map on the right shows how the change in temperature is distributed across the world.

(Click on chart for larger view.)

Projected Temperature

Figure 2. Source: USGCRP, 2017.

The last three years have been the warmest years on record for the globe. These trends are expected to continue…(p.1) Figure 2 maps the projected increase in temperature across North America at mid- and late-century under a low emission scenario and a high emission scenario. I favor the high emission scenario, because I see no sign we are slowing GHG emissions. The high emission scenario shows the average yearly temperature rising by 4-6°F in Missouri by mid-century. By the end of the century, some regions of the country will experience temperature increases of 8-10°F.

Human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. (p.1) There is no convincing alternative explanation. See the previous post for some comments on climate change denial.

Global average sea level has risen by about 7–8 inches since 1900, with almost half (about 3 inches) of that rise occurring since 1993. (p.1)

Sea Level Rise

Figure 3. Source: USGCRP, 2017.

Global average sea levels are expected to continue to rise—by at least several inches in the next 15 years and by 1–4 feet by 2100. A rise of as much as 8 feet by 2100 cannot be ruled out. (p.2) Figure 3 shows historical and projected sea level rise across 2 time scales – the upper chart goes back to 500 BCE. The lower chart goes back to 1800. The upper one especially shows that the increase in sea level is unprecedented in human history. The different colored lines in the lower chart represent projections from different future emission scenarios – high (red) to low (blue).

 

 

 

Minor Tidal Floods

Figure 4. Source: USGCRP, 2017.

The incidence of daily tidal flooding is accelerating in more than 25 Atlantic and Gulf Coast cities. (p.2) Figure 4 shows the historical and projected incidence of minor tidal flooding in Charleston SC, and San Francisco CA. Minor flooding is also called nuisance flooding. Basically, it is flooding that occurs only at high tide, and is limited to a couple of feet. But it is defined differently at different locations. For an article explaining it all, see here: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/understanding-climate-billy-sweet-and-john-marra-explain. The charts show that flooding is on the increase, though in San Francisco, the increase is small (also typical of other West Coast locations). It is much larger in Charleston (also typical of other East Coast locations). In both locations, minor flooding is expected to increase, and under the high emission scenario, which is the one we seem to be following, it will nearly become a daily event.

Heavy Precip Graphic

Figure 5. Source: USGCRP, 2017.

Heavy rainfall is increasing in intensity and frequency across the United States and globally and is expected to continue to increase. The largest observed changes in the United States have occurred in the Northeast. (p.2) Figure 5 shows the historical change in heavy precipitation events across the United States. It shows the data in several forms. The map at upper left shows the percentage change in the largest 1-day rainfall event over rolling 5-year periods. The map at upper right shows the percentage change in the number of days that fall in the 99th percentile of 1-day precipitation over the historical record. The map at lower left shows the percentage change in the number of 2-day precipitation events that exceeded the largest 2-day amount that is expected to occur, on average, once every 5 years, from 1901-2016. The map at lower right shows the number of 2-day precipitation events that exceeded the largest 2-day amount that is expected to occur, on average, once every 5 years, from 1958-2016. Thus, the two lower maps show identical data, except the reference period in the left one stretches back to 1901, while the reference period in the right one stretches back to 1958. (This is all a bit complicated, but it is necessary because the amount of precipitation that constitutes a heavy event may be different in, say, Seattle vs. Las Vegas. You just have to unpack it slowly, and it all makes sense.)

The trend in Figure 4 is strongest in the eastern part of the country, where the increase is large, no matter how you count the data. In the Southwest, however, the data is equivocal. That region may be getting heavier 1-day storms, but heavy precipitation is not lasting over 2 days as frequently as it used to.

Heatwaves have become more frequent in the United States since the 1960s, while extreme cold temperatures and cold waves are less frequent. (p.2) I have written previous posts on how the increase in temperature could lead to deadly heat waves. One series of posts starts here. Another article is here.

The incidence of large forest fires in the western United States has increased…and is expected to further increase…with profound changes to regional ecosystems. (p.2) I’ve written quite a number of posts about how fire is increasing in the West, and how that may contrast with Missouri. See here and here.

Earlier spring melt and reduced snowpack are already affecting water resources in the western United States…Long-duration hydrological drought is increasingly possible before the end of this century. (p.2) I’ve covered this extensively in my posts on the water situation in California and made a number of updates. The original series of posts is here. The most recent update is here.

The magnitude of climate change…will depend primarily on the amount of greenhouse gases (especially carbon dioxide) emitted globally…With significant reductions…the increase in annual average global temperature could be limited to 3.6°F (2°C) or less. (p.2)

The global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has now passed 400 parts per million (ppm), a level that last occurred about 3 million years ago, when both global average temperature and sea level were significantly higher than today. (p.2)

Continued CO2 emissions would lead to an atmospheric concentration not experienced in tens to hundreds of millions of years. (p.3)

In 2014 and 2015, emission growth rates slowed as economic growth became less carbon-intensive. A recent report, however, suggests that in 2018, the rate of emissions reversed, surging ahead at an accelerating rate. (Le Quéré et al, 2018)

The next post will focus on Volume 2 of the National Climate Report.

Sources:

U.S. Global Change Research Program. 2017. Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I [Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 470 pp, doi: 10.7930/J0J964J6.

Le Quéré, Corinne, and 76 other authors. 2018. Global Carbon Budge, 2018. Earth System Science Data, 10, 2141-2194. Downloaded 12/8/2018 from https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018.

Krugman: “The Depravity of Climate-Change Denial”

I ended my last post by noting that if we are to avoid devastating the planet and ourselves through climate change, drastic action is needed immediately. If you ask me, that’s been clear for a long time, but the truth has been denied by climate change deniers. Climate change deniers dislike the word “denial” because it comes from the psychological mechanism of denial, like addicts who deny that they have an addiction.

Perhaps climate change deniers do have an illness like addiction, or perhaps it is something even worse.

In a recent OpEd, Paul Krugman compares the denial of climate change to the denial that cigarette smoking is harmful. According to him, tobacco companies knew for decades that smoking was harmful, but undertook a cynical campaign to try to discredit the science around smoking. Why? Money. They were willing to let hundreds of thousands die in order to preserve profits. The denial of climate change, he says, has been undertaken by fossil fuel companies for precisely the same reason, using precisely the same tactics (and, in fact, using some of the same organizations to conduct the campaign). He also gives a nod to mistrust of government regulation, which will be required to address climate change (while also poking fun at it, noting that their mistrust somehow manages to allow governments to force consumers to subsidize coal. Thus, the real motivation is reduced back to money.) Krugman concludes that this is not just misguided, it is depraved.

The amazing thing is that their nonsense has taken hold of an entire political party (the Republicans) and a great number of people in this state (Missouri). It reminds one of how Naziism took hold of a large number of people in Germany during the 1930s. We look back and ask how rational people could have believed such obvious nonsense, such vile evil? Could such things happen in the USA? Well, try reading The Paranoid Style in American Politics for a starter. Of course it could.

The climate change deniers I have known fall into two camps. Some are simple people who are just repeating what they have heard their neighbors say, or what they have seen in the conservative media they like to follow. Others are more informed. These deniers like to see themselves as skeptics, but to me they seem pervasively suspicious, oppositional, and perhaps even querulous. They are preoccupied with unjustifiable doubts, often seeing conspiracies where none exist. They focus on details or outright fabrications to prop up their denial, while ignoring vast amounts of fact, upon which they turn their back. Because not everything is known, they argue that nothing is known.

I received an email from one, a British lord no less, who comfortably turned his back on thousands of scientific references in an IPCC report, in favor of a column written by the host of an Australian children’s TV show. Well, he claimed, climate science is a vast conspiracy.

Is that paranoia? Has it gone so far as to be a psychotic delusion? Were the German people who supported Naziism deluded? Psychotic? At what point does fear of the future – I’m fearful, too, it would be silly not to be – turn into suspicion and paranoia?

Well, this IPCC report makes it clear that global warming, if left unchecked, is going to cost hundreds of billions of dollars yearly, and is going to ruin the lives of hundreds of millions. Clinging on to denial in the face of such facts, Krugman writes, is depraved. It is no longer a viable intellectual or political position, he argues, it is a sign of depravity.

Drastic change is required immediately if we are to avoid terrible damage to our planet. Even in only economic terms, the projected damage if we do nothing is absolutely staggering. But in addition to that, the lives of hundreds of millions will be ruined. Can humankind respond with the kind of immediate, large-scale planetary change that is required, or is it already too late? Will we act, or have we sold ourselves out to the forces of depravity?

Sources:

Hofstadter, Richard. 1996. The Paranoid Style in American Politics, and Other Essays. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Originally published in 1952.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2018. Global Warming of 1.5°C (Draft). Downloaded 11/24/2018 from https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15.

Krugman, Paul. “The Depravity of Climate-Change Denial.” The New York Times, November 26, 2018. Viewed online 12/1/2018 at https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/26/opinion/climate-change-denial-republican.html.

Global Warming of 1.5°C (2)

In the previous post, I reported that the recent IPCC report, Global Warming of 1.5°C, concludes that it is theoretically possible to limit global warming to 1.5°C, but it would require drastic change: a 50% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030, and zero net GHG emissions by 2050. In this post, I will discuss some of what the report says about making such a change.

The IPCC reviewed a number of computer models to explore scenarios that limited global warming to 1.5°C. Assumptions varied between the models, and they consequently yielded different results. They can be grouped into several categories: models that projected an increase in Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) that stayed below 1.5°C, models that projected a small overshoot of 1.5°C (eventually returning to 1.5°C), models that projected a large overshoot of 1.5°C (eventually returning to 1.5°C), models that projected a 2.0°C increase in GMST, and models that projected a large increase above 2.0°C.

CO2 Emission Price

Figure 1. Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2018.

According to the report, limiting the increase in GMST to 1.5°F would require putting a substantial price on carbon emissions. Estimates vary widely, thus, there is substantial uncertainty about just how large the price increase would need to be. It is clear, however, that the smaller the increase in GMST, the higher the price would have to be, and in all cases, the price would need to rise over time. Figure 1 shows the findings. The required price of carbon emissions is on the vertical axis, and the year is on the horizontal axis. The different colored columns represent the categories defined in the preceding paragraph.

The projected price for 2030 ranges from $135 to $5500 per metric ton of CO2e. The projected price in 2050 ranges from $245 to $13,000 per metric ton of CO2e. For comparison, at 11:22 a.m. CST on 12/4/18, Bloomberg reported the current price for emissions on the European Emissions Exchange was €20.72 ($23.48). Thus, the estimate for 2030 ranges from about 6 to 234 times the current price. I don’t know if fossil fuel prices would increase equally, but you can be sure they would increase a lot!

Carbon pricing, however, would not be sufficient in and of itself, and other policies would be required. The strategies mentioned in the report include using less energy, converting electricity generation to methods that don’t release carbon dioxide, converting all fuels to types that don’t release carbon dioxide, converting all energy end use to use decarbonized electricity (e.g. electric cars that run on renewable electricity), and some form of carbon sequestration. This is an intimidating list of changes. It would involve transforming basically all of our energy use infrastructure.

I couldn’t find an estimate of the cost of making the required transformation.

Threats to systems

Figure 2. Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2018.

IPCC also doesn’t make specific predictions about the consequences of unchecked global warming, such as “Miami will flood,” or “400 million people will die of famine.” Rather, they speak of threats, how many people will be exposed to them, and which natural systems will be impacted. Figure 2 shows that for all of the systems considered, the threat increases the higher GMST goes. The increase in GMST is shown on the vertical axis. In the columns, white means the system will not impacted. Yellow means it will be impacted moderately. Red indicates that the impact will be severe and widespread. Purple indicates that the impacts will not only be severe, but perhaps irreversible, and also that the ability to cope with and adapt to the change will be limited. It is easy to see that for all systems, the risks increase as global warming increases. Some of the systems enter the red or purple color at or below 1.5C. But many of them only turn red or purple between 1.5 and 2.0°C.

The consequences are dramatic. The report discusses the specifics at great length, and they are far too numerous and complex to try to summarize here. However, I will say that the reports quotes estimates that, if no policy is instituted to limit global warming, GMST would rise 3.66°F by 2100, and it would reduce global Gross World Product (GWP) by 2.6%. According to the CIA World Factbook, GWP in 2017 was $127.8 trillion. Thus, even if GWP does not grow over time, a 2.6% reduction would equate to $3.3 trillion. In comparison, limiting global warming to 2°C would result in a decrease in GWP of 0.5% ($639 billion), and the 1.5°C scenario would result in a reduction of 0.3% ($383 billion).

Thus, the damage associated with global warming increases dramatically the more it warms. Limiting climate change to 1.5°C compared to 2.0°C would prevent $256 billion in economic loss every year. Thus, over a 10-year period, if you spent $2.5 trillion on climate change prevention, it would still be justifiable on the basis of avoided damage. A few trillion dollars here, hundreds of billions of dollars there – pretty soon, it will add up to real money!

The report includes population projections in its modeling of future climate change: increasing the population increases GHG emissions, and hence, it increases future climate change. The report does NOT address, however, limiting population as a strategy for limiting climate change, and least I could not find a section that did. Hmm! (If it’s there and I missed it, please let me know in a comment.)

The report is based on more than 6,000 scientific references. It contains a great deal of information, far too much to adequately summarize here. It should make clear, however, that the denial of climate change is no longer viable. If you ask me, it’s been clear for a long time, but this is pretty definitive.

Drastic change is required immediately if we are to avoid terrible damage to our planet. Even in only economic terms, the projected damage if we do nothing is absolutely staggering. Can humankind respond with the kind of immediate, large-scale planetary change that is required, or is it already too late?

Sources:

Bloomberg.com. Markets: Energy. Viewed online 12/4/2018 at https://www.bloomberg.com/energ.

Central Intelligence Agency. 2018. The World Factbook 2016-17. Viewed online 11/30/2018 at https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2018. Global Warming of 1.5°C (Draft). Downloaded 11/24/2018 from https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15.